2025 年 5 月 16 日，穆迪將美國主權信用評等從最高級的 Aaa 下調至 Aa1，並將展望從「負面」調整為「穩定」，結束了自 1917 年以來對美國長達一世紀的最高信用評等。此舉反映出對美國政府債務持續上升和利息支付負擔加重的擔憂，並可能對全球市場產生深遠影響。
Summary
- 評等下調原因：穆迪指出，美國政府債務已達 36 兆美元，且預計未來十年預算赤字將持續擴大，主要原因包括利息支出增加、社會福利支出上升以及稅收收入相對疲弱。
- 市場反應：評等下調導致美國股指期貨和美元下跌，黃金價格上漲 1.4%，10 年期國債收益率升至 4.48%。
- 政治回應：財政部長斯科特·貝森特（Scott Bessent）批評穆迪的決定，稱其反映了拜登政府的財政管理不善。
Highlights
穆迪評等下調詳情
- 穆迪將美國主權信用評等從 Aaa 下調至 Aa1，並將展望從「負面」調整為「穩定」。
- 穆迪表示，預計到 2035 年，美國聯邦債務將達到 GDP 的 134%，高於 2024 年的 98%
市場反應
- 評等下調導致美國股指期貨和美元下跌，黃金價格上漲 1.4%，10 年期國債收益率升至 4.48%。
- 亞洲主要股指下跌，包括香港恒生指數下跌 0.7%，東京日經指數下跌 0.4%。
政治與政策回應
- 財政部長斯科特·貝森特（Scott Bessent）批評穆迪的決定，稱其反映了拜登政府的財政管理不善。
- 白宮發言人庫什·德賽（Kush Desai）表示，穆迪在過去四年對財政災難保持沉默，質疑其可信度。
結論
穆迪對美國信用評等的下調反映出對美國財政狀況的深刻擔憂，特別是政府債務的持續上升和利息支出的增加。儘管短期內市場反應有限，但長期而言，這可能導致借貸成本上升，進一步加劇財政壓力。政治上，這一評等下調引發了對財政政策的激烈辯論，未來的政策走向將對美國經濟產生深遠影響。
Moody’s Downgrades U.S. Credit Rating Amid Fiscal and Debt Concerns
On May 16, 2025, Moody’s downgraded the U.S. sovereign credit rating from Aaa to Aa1, ending over a century of the nation’s top-tier credit status since 1917. The outlook was simultaneously revised from “negative” to “stable.” The decision reflects growing concerns over the U.S. government’s rising debt levels and interest payment burdens, signaling potential long-term implications for financial markets and fiscal policy credibility.
Summary
- Reason for Downgrade: Moody’s cited that U.S. federal debt has reached $36 trillion, and projected fiscal deficits will continue to widen over the next decade due to increasing interest costs, entitlement spending, and stagnant tax revenues.
- Market Reaction: The downgrade triggered a drop in U.S. equity futures and the dollar, while gold prices rose by 1.4% and the 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 4.48%.
- Political Response: Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent criticized Moody’s move, blaming it on fiscal mismanagement under the Biden administration.
Highlights
Moody’s Downgrade Details
- Moody’s officially lowered the U.S. credit rating from Aaa to Aa1 and revised the outlook to “stable.”
- Moody’s projects that by 2035, U.S. federal debt will reach 134% of GDP, up from 98% in 2024.
Market Reactions
- The rating cut triggered declines in U.S. stock futures and the dollar.
- Gold prices rose 1.4%, and the 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 4.48%.
- Asian stock indices also reacted negatively: Hang Seng dropped 0.7%, and Nikkei fell 0.4%.
Political and Policy Commentary
- Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent blamed Biden-era fiscal expansion for the downgrade.
- White House spokesperson Kush Desai questioned Moody’s credibility, stating it ignored past fiscal missteps.
Conclusion
Moody’s downgrade underscores growing unease over the sustainability of U.S. public finances, particularly with elevated debt levels and surging interest payments. While short-term market volatility was contained, the long-term risks of higher borrowing costs and fiscal inflexibility remain a significant concern. Politically, the move has reignited intense debate over fiscal strategy and the credibility of debt management under current leadership. Future policy decisions will play a pivotal role in shaping the U.S.’s fiscal trajectory.