Italy’s ability to service debt is affirmed by rating agencies, with its credit spreads reaching a relatively low level for the year.
On Friday (11/17), Moody’s raised Italy’s outlook from negative to stable, confirming its Baa3 rating. The outlook upgrade was mainly due to Italy’s improved medium-term economic prospects and reduced risk of significant deterioration in its government debt situation, as well as reduced energy supply risk and improved banking sector operating environment. This rating action significantly reduced the risk of Italy falling into non-investment grade.
Italy’s 10-year government bond credit spread relative to Germany has fluctuated between 210 and 160bps in this year. Since October, as the overall market risk sentiment improved significantly, and the three rating agencies released their latest ratings for Italy without downgrading, Italy’s credit spread relative to Germany reached a high level of about 200bps in October, and then gradually declined to about 170bps recently. Italy’s 10-year US dollar bond credit spread was relatively stable, narrowing by about 50bps since the beginning of the year, currently about 150bps, also a relatively lower level for the year.
Credit rating changes
Italy, the third-largest economy in the eurozone, benefits from its large, diversified and high-value-added economy. Although its growth has slowed recently and its government debt is high (the second highest in the eurozone after Greece), Italy’s debt repayment capacity is affirmed unchanged. Therefore, the three credit rating agencies did not downgrade their latest ratings for Italy released since October.
· 10/20 S&P affirmed Italy’s long-term issuer rating at BBB, outlook stable.
· 11/10 Fitch affirmed Italy’s long-term issuer rating at BBB, outlook stable.
· 11/17 Moody’s raised Italy’s outlook from negative to stable, long-term issuer rating maintained at BBB-.
Secondary market trading
· ITALY 1.25% 2026 bonds traded near 5.57%, down about 28bps since the end of October.
· ITALY 5.375% 2033 bonds traded near 5.90%, down about 42bps since the end of October.
· ITALY 3.875% 2051 bonds traded near 6.54%, down about 39bps since the end of October.
信評公司肯定義大利的償債能力，近期信用利差來到年內相對低位
上週五（11/17）穆迪將義大利的信評展望由負向調升至穩定，評級維持Baa3不變，此次調升展望主要由於義大利中期的經濟前景改善與政府債務顯著惡化的風險下降，加上能源供給風險減輕、高利率環境使銀行業的獲利能力提升。此次展望調升使義大利落入非投資等級的風險大幅下降。
今年以來，義大利相對德國10年期公債的信用利差多在210~160bps的區間波動。自10月起，隨著整體的市場風險情緒顯著改善，加上10月下旬至今三家信評公司對義大利發布的最新評級皆未降評，使義大利相對德國公債的信用利差於10月來到今年的相對高位約200bps附近，之後逐漸走低，目前約170bps。義大利10年期美元公債的信用利差則是相對穩定，今年以來收窄了約50bps，目前約150bps，亦為年內相對低點。
信評變動
歐元區第三大經濟體義大利受惠於其龐大、多元且高附加價值的經濟規模，雖然近期增長趨緩，且政府債務偏高（為歐元區內僅次於希臘），但信評公司仍肯定義大利的償債能力不變，故10月以來三家信評公司對義大利發布的最新評級皆未調降。
· 10/20 標普確認義大利之長期發行人信評為BBB，展望維持穩定
· 11/10 惠譽確認義大利之長期發行人信評為BBB，展望維持穩定
· 11/17 穆迪將義大利之展望由負向調升至穩定，長期發行人信評維持BBB-
次級市場交易
· 義大利（ITALY）1.25% 2026年券收益率約5.57%，10月底至今走低約28bps
· 義大利（ITALY）5.375% 2033年券收益率約5.90%，10月底至今走低約42bps
· 義大利（ITALY）3.875% 2051年券收益率約6.54%，10月底至今走低約39bps