The jobless claims fell more than expected, easing the slowdown in the labor market.
The latest data released by the U.S. Department of Labor on Wednesday (11/22) showed that the initial jobless claims declined last week after rising for several weeks, posting the largest drop since June. This indicated that businesses retained their employees before the Thanksgiving holiday, alleviating the cooling of the job market. U.S. Treasury yields rose by about 1-3bps across the curve at close. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the market’s expectation of the Fed rate cut decreased after the release of jobless claims data, with the probability of starting rate cut in May next year at about 55% (compared to 60% a day ago), and in June next year with a probability of about 78% ( compared to 82% a day ago).
Economic data
· US Initial Jobless Claims for the last week: 209,000 (Expected: 225,000, Revised Previous: 233,000)
· US Continuing Jobless Claims for the last week: 1,840,000 (Expected: 1,875,000, Revised Previous: 1,862,000)
US Treasury market conditions
· The 2-year US Treasury yield increased 3bps to around 4.90%.
· The 10-year US Treasury yield increased 2bp to around 4.41%.
申請失業金人數優於預期，勞動市場降溫的情況緩解
週三（11/22）美國勞工部公布最新數據顯示，上周初領失業金在先前連續幾周上升後有所下降，降幅創 6 月以來最大，表明感恩節假期前企業廣泛的留住員工跡象，就業市場降溫情況緩解。勞動市場數據優於預期，使各天期美債收益率收盤小幅走高約1~3bps。依據芝商所 (CME) 的 FedWatch 工具，申請失業金人數公布後，市場預期聯準會降息的機率下降，將於明年5 月降息的機率約55%（相較前一日約60%）、明年6月降息的機率約78%（相較前一日約82%）。
經濟數據
· 美國上周初領失業金人數 20.9 萬，預期 22.5 萬，修正後前值 23.3 萬
· 美國上周續領失業金人數 184 萬，預期 187.5 萬，修正後前值 186.2 萬
美債市場狀況
· 2年期美債利率較前日上漲3bps至約4.90%
· 10年期美債利率較前日上漲2bps至約4.41%