Fed minutes lean hawkish, little impact on Treasury yields.
The latest Fed minutes released on Tuesday (11/21) showed that officials were not keen on cutting rates in the near term, especially with inflation still far above their target. However, the market reacted little to the Fed minutes, as the 10-year US Treasury yield fluctuated slightly within a 5bps range around 4.4% during the day, closing 1bp lower from the previous day at 4.41%. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the market expects the Fed to start cutting rates in May next year with a probability of about 60%, and in June next year with a probability of about 80%.
Remarks by officials
· The Fed minutes from early November showed that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members were still concerned that inflation might persist or rise, and that monetary policy needed to remain restrictive until data showed that inflation convincingly returned to the central bank’s 2% target. All members agreed that interest rate policy needed to be advanced with careful consideration.
US Treasury market conditions
· The 2-year US Treasury yield decreased 3bps to around 4.88%.
· The 10-year US Treasury yield decreased 1bp to around 4.41%.
聯準會的會議紀要偏鷹派，對美債收益率影響不大
週二（11/21）聯準會公布的會議紀要顯示，官員們在最近一次會議上表示對短期內降息的意願不高，特別是在通膨仍遠高於目標的情況下。市場對聯儲會會議紀要反應不大，10年期美債收益率多在4.4%附近約5bps範圍小幅波動，收盤較前一日下跌1bp至4.41%。依據芝加哥商業交易所 (CME) 的 FedWatch 工具，市場預測聯準會將於 明年5 月開始降息的機率約六成、明年6月開始降息的機率約八成%。
經濟數據
· 聯準會於11月初的會議紀要顯示，聯邦公開市場委員會 (FOMC) 成員仍擔心通膨可能持續或走高，貨幣政策需要保持限制性，直到數據顯示通膨令人信服地回到央行 2% 的目標。所有成員一致同意，需要深思熟慮地推進利率政策。
美債市場狀況
· 2年期美債利率較前日下跌3bps至約4.88%
· 10年期美債利率較前日下跌1bp至約4.41%