Walmart is cautious about the holiday season and expects prices to drop in the near future 沃爾瑪謹慎看待年底的消費旺季,並認爲近期物價可能反轉向下

Walmart is cautious about the holiday season and expects prices to drop in the near future.
 
According to the third-quarter financial report of the US retail giant Walmart Inc. (Moody’s Aa2 stable / S&P AA stable / Fitch AA stable), the large retailer’s revenue and profit both increased year-over-year, exceeding market expectations. The strong performance was driven by consumer grocery purchases and the e-commerce business growth. However, the management indicated that the US consumer momentum might weaken and expressed caution about the holiday season that usually boosts spending. They also predicted that prices might reverse downward. The main financial data are summarized as follows:
 
·      Third-quarter revenue was $160.8 billion, up 5.2% year-over-year, exceeding market expectations.
·      Third quarter profit was $4.13 billion, more than double the same period last year, mainly due to the low base effect of last year’s settlement of opioid-related lawsuits, which resulted in a large payment by the company.
·      Same-store sales in the US market grew 4.7% year-over-year, surpassing analysts’ estimates of 3.9%.
 
Walmart CEO Doug McMillon said that deflation might occur in the coming months, as the price increases for fresh groceries and general merchandise in Walmart stores are slowing down and even reversing, despite being higher than a year ago. During the inflationary period, many affluent consumers switched to Walmart for shopping, which raised concerns that the high-income customers might disappear once inflation eased.
 
Secondary market trading
·      Walmart Inc (WMT) 4.0% 2030 bond recently traded near 4.82%, which has decreased by 60bps since the end of October.
·      Walmart Inc (WMT) 4.1% 2033 bond recently traded near 4.92%, which has decreased by 62bps since the end of October.
·      Walmart Inc (WMT) 4.5% 2053 bond recently traded near 5.27%, which has decreased by 59bps since the end of October.
 
沃爾瑪謹慎看待年底的消費旺季,並認爲近期物價可能反轉向下
 
依據美國零售巨擘沃爾瑪公司(Moody‘s Aa2 穩定 / S&P AA 穩定 / Fitch AA 穩定)第三季財報,受惠於消費者的雜貨購買量和電子商務業務的成長,使這家大型零售商的營收與獲利皆較去年同期增長,表現優於市場預期;惟管理階層預示美國的消費動能可能轉弱,謹慎看待年底隨著假期而來的消費旺季,並認為物價可能反轉向下。主要財報數據摘要如下:
 
·      第三季營收1608億美元,較去年同期成長5.2%,優於市場預期。
·      第三季獲利41.29億美元,較去年同期大幅成長2倍以上,主因去年鴉片類藥物相關法律訴訟後達成和解,公司支付巨額和解金使去年的基期偏低。
·      第三季美國市場的同店銷售額年增 4.7%,優於分析師預估的 3.9%。
 
沃爾瑪執行長 Doug McMillon 指出,未來幾個月可能出現通貨緊縮,雖然目前在沃爾瑪商店內,美國生鮮雜貨和一般商品價格仍比一年前高,但預期接下來的物價漲幅正在減緩、甚至可能開始反轉。在高通膨期間,美國有不少富裕消費者轉向沃爾瑪採購,這令市場擔憂一旦通膨減緩,高收入客戶可能消失。
 
次級市場交易狀況
·      沃爾瑪(WMT)4.0% 2030年券目前收益率約4.82%,10月底至今走低60bps
·      沃爾瑪(WMT)4.1% 2033年券目前收益率約4.92%,10月底至今走低62bps
·      沃爾瑪(WMT)4.5% 2053年券目前收益率約5.27%,10月底至今走低59bps