As the market anticipates the end of the Fed’s rate hike cycle, US Treasury yields declined this week.
Several Fed officials spoke on Friday (11/17), with both hawkish and dovish tones. The voting members among them, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee suggested that inflation could fall back to the 2% target if house prices declined, while Fed Governor Michael Barr said that interest rates were close to their peak.
The economic data released this week showed that the US inflation pressure eased and the labor market cooled down, leading the market to expect the end of the Fed’s rate hike cycle. So far this week, the 10-year US Treasury yield has fallen by about 22bps, and the 2-year US Treasury yield has fallen by about 18bps.
Remarks by officials
• Austan Goolsbee, the president of the Chicago Fed, believes that if the housing price pressure eases as expected, inflation will fall back to the 2% target.
• Fed Governor Michael Barr signaled dovishness, saying that interest rates were near their peak.
• Susan Collins, the president of the Boston Fed, maintained a hawkish stance, saying that the Fed should not rule out further rate hikes.
US Treasury market conditions
• The 2-year US Treasury yield increased 5bps to around 4.89%.
• The 10-year US Treasury yield remained roughly unchanged at around 4.44%.
市場預期聯準會的升息循環接近終點，本週美債收益率走低
週五（11/17）有多位官員發表談話，立場鷹鴿皆有，其中今年具有投票權的芝加哥聯準銀行行長古爾斯比 (Austan Goolsbee) 認為，若房價走低，則通膨可回落至 2% 目標。聯準會理事巴爾 (Michael Barr) 則認為利率已經接近峰值。
本週公布的通膨與勞動市場數據皆顯示美國的通膨壓力趨緩，而勞動市場有所降溫，使市場預期聯準會的升息循環接近終點。累計本週至今，10年期美債收益率已下跌約22bps， 2年期美債收益率已下跌約18bps。
官員談話
• 芝加哥聯準銀行行長古爾斯比 (Austan Goolsbee) 認為，倘若房價壓力若能如預期緩解，通膨就走上回落 2% 目標的道路。
• 聯準會理事巴爾 (Michael Barr) 釋出鴿派訊號，認為利率已經接近峰值。
• 波士頓聯準銀行總裁柯林斯 (Susan Collins) 堅守鷹姿表態，聯準會不應排除進一步升息的可能性。
美債市場狀況
• 2年期美債利率較前日上彈5bps至約4.89%
• 10年期美債利率較前日大致不變至約4.44%