The favorable economic data led to a rebound in the US Treasury yields.
Following the signs of cooling inflation in the US consumer price index (CPI) for October yesterday, the producer price index (PPI) for October released on Wednesday (11/15) also showed a slowdown in inflation, further confirming the expectation that the Fed will stop hiking interest rates. In addition, the US retail sales month-on-month growth rate for October was –0.1%, the first negative growth since March this year, but better than the expected –0.3%, and the September data was revised upward to 0.9%, indicating strong growth; overall, the high interest rate environment suppressed consumer demand, but the decline was lower than market expectations. Under the positive economic data, the US Treasury yields of various maturities rebounded by 8~9bps respectively.
Economic data
· US October PPI YoY Growth: 1.3% (Expected: 1.9%, Previous: 2.2%)
· US October PPI MoM Growth: -0.5% (Expected: 0.1%, Previous: 0.4%)
· US October Core PPI YoY Growth: 2.4% (Expected: 2.7%, Previous: 2.7%)
· US October Core PPI MoM Growth: 0% (Expected: 0.3%, Previous: 0.2%)
· US October Retail Sales MoM Growth: -0.1% (Expected: -0.35%, Revised Previous: 0.9%)
· US October Core Retail Sales MoM Growth: 0.1% (Expected: -0.2%, Revised Previous: 0.8%)
US Treasury market conditions
· The 2-year US Treasury yield increased 8bps to around 4.91%.
· The 10-year US Treasury yield increased 9bps to around 4.54%.
經濟數據報喜使美債收益率反彈
繼昨日美國 10 月消費者物價指數(CPI)出現降溫跡象,週三(11/15)公布的 10 月生產者物價指數(PPI)也顯示通膨降溫,市場進一步確認聯準會將停止升息。此外,美國 10 月零售銷售月增率為–0.1%,為今年 3 月以來首次負增長,但優於預期的–0.3%,且9月數據經上修至0.9%後,顯示增長強勁;整體而言,高利率環境雖壓抑消費者需求,但降幅低於市場預期。在經濟數據報喜下,各天期美債收益率反彈8~9bps不等。
經濟數據
· 美國 10 月 PPI 年增率 1.3%,預期 1.9%,前值 2.2%
· 美國 10 月 PPI 月增率 – 0.5%,預期 0.1%,前值 0.4%
· 美國 10 月核心 PPI 年增率 2.4%,預期 2.7%,前值 2.7%
· 美國 10 月核心 PPI 月增率 0%,預期 0.3%,前值 0.2%
· 美國 10 月零售銷售月增率 – 0.1%,預期 – 0.35%,修正後前值 0.9%
· 美國 10 月核心零售銷售月增率 0.1%,預期 – 0.2%,修正後前值 0.8%
美債市場狀況
· 2年期美債利率較前日上漲約8bps至約4.91%
· 10年期美債利率較前日上漲約9bps至約4.54%
The favorable economic data led to a rebound in the US Treasury yields 經濟數據報喜使美債收益率反彈
