Treasury yields closed mixed, and the curve extends its flattening.
After Fed Chair Powell delivered hawkish remarks that boosted U.S. Treasury yields in the prior session, the speeches of two Fed officials on Friday (11/10) showed both dovish and hawkish tones. Treasury yields across various maturities changed little and closed mixed; among them, the 2-year Treasury yield rose 3bps to 5.05%, while the 10-year Treasury yield fell about 1bp to 4.61%. The inversion of the yield curve measured by the spread between 2-year and 10-year yields deepened, currently at about -44bps. The market expects interest rates to be higher for a longer period, but the rate hiking cycle is nearing its end.
Remarks by officials
- San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said that the Fed may need to raise interest rates again if inflation stalls and the economy grows rapidly.
- Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic expressed a relatively dovish view, saying that policymakers do not need to further increase interest rates to bring U.S. inflation back to the target level.
US Treasury market conditions - The 2-year US Treasury yield increased 3bps to around 5.05%.
- The 10-year US Treasury yield decreased 1bp to around 4.61%.
各天期美債收益率漲跌互見,殖利率曲線持續走平
在前一天聯準會主席鮑爾發表鷹派言論使美債收益率大彈之後,週五(11/10)兩位官員發表談話的立場則是鷹鴿皆有。各天期美債收益率變化不大,收盤漲跌互見;其中,2年期美債收益率上彈3bps至5.05%,10年期美債收益率則是下跌約1bp至4.61%,以2年期與10年期衡量的殖利率曲線利差之倒掛情況持續,目前約-44bps。市場預期利率將維持在高位較長時間,但升息循環接近終點。
官員談話 - 舊金山聯準銀行行長戴利 (Mary Daly) 表示,如果通膨下降進展停滯而經濟快速發展,聯準會可能需要再次升息。
- 亞特蘭大聯準銀行行長波斯提克 (Raphael Bostic) 發表相對鴿派言論,認為決策者無需進一步升息就可以令美國通膨率回落至目標水準。
美債市場狀況 - 2年期美債利率較前日上漲約3bps至約5.05%
- 10年期美債利率較前日下跌約1bp至約4.61%