The Treasury yields declined, while remarks from Fed officials were perceived as less aggressive and more moderate.
On Tuesday (11/7), several Fed officials expressed the need for more time to assess the impact of rising US Treasury yields on the economy. Governor Bowman argued for the need of further rate hikes to curb inflation, while Chicago Fed President Goolsbee stated that officials have not made preemptive rate decisions. Overall, the officials’ statements were less hawkish compared to previous positions, leading the market to interpret them as more neutral. As a result, US Treasury yields declined by about 2 to 7bps across the curve. At the close, the 2-year Treasury yield dropped by 2bps to 4.91%, while the 10-year Treasury yield fell by 7bps to 4.57%, with the yield curve flattening.
Remarks by officials
- Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said the Fed has made significant inroads in its battle to bring inflation down to its 2% target, and attention will turn to how long to keep rates at their current level if that progress continues.
- Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said in an interview that the Fed may have to do more to bring inflation down to its 2% goal, given the recent spate of resilient economic data.
- Fed Governor Michelle Bowman, on the other hand, reiterated that the Fed will likely need to raise rates again, though for now she is content to assess the data and what it implies for the economic outlook.
US Treasury market conditions - The 2-year US Treasury yield decreased 2bps to around 4.91%.
- The 10-year US Treasury yield decreased 7bps to around 4.57%.
市場偏中性解讀聯準會官員談話，美債收益率走低
週二（11/7）多位聯準會官員表示需要更多時間來評估美債殖利率上升對經濟的影響，其中理事鮑曼認為仍有必要再加息以抑制通膨，而芝加哥聯邦準備銀行總裁古爾斯比則表示官員們尚未預先做出利率決定。整體而言，官員們的發言的鷹派程度不若以往，市場以偏中性解讀，美債收益率各天期走低約2~7bps不等；截至收盤，2年期美債下跌2bps至4.91%，10年期美債下跌7bps至4.57%，殖利率曲線走平。
官員談話 - 芝加哥聯準銀行行長古爾斯比（Austan Goolsbee）表示，聯準會在將通膨降至2％的目標方面已取得重大進展，現在將關注應將利率維持在目前水平多久。
- 明尼阿波利斯聯準銀行行長卡什卡里 (Neel Kashkari)於受訪時表示，儘管有跡象顯示物價壓力正在緩解，但宣布戰勝通膨還為時過早，暗示聯準會的升息周期尚未結束。
- 聯準會理事鮑曼（Michelle Bowman）則重申，聯準會可能需要再次提高利率，儘管目前她滿意於數據顯示的經濟前景。
美債市場狀況 - 2年期美債利率較前日下跌約2bps至約4.91%
- 10年期美債利率較前日下跌約7bps至約4.57%