The nonfarm payroll data indicates a cooling U.S. labor market, leading to a further decline in Treasury yields.
The US economy added 150,000 jobs in October, compared to 297,000 in September, and below market expectations of 180,000. Job gains declined in manufacturing due to strikes. Meanwhile, the jobless rate rose to 3.9%, the highest since January 2022. Following the release of this data, two Fed officials expressed that the labor market slowdown is what the Fed hopes to see. On Friday (11/3), the 10-year Treasury yield reached a daily low of around 4.48% and closed down about 9 bps at 4.57%, marking a cumulative decline of around 36 bps over the past three trading days.
Remarks by officials
• Minneapolis Fed Bank President Neel Kashkari said that the labor market is slowing down, which is exactly what we want, but he also stated that it’s too soon to call if the Fed will need to consider another interest rate hike.
• Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin said that softer jobs data is moving in the direction desired by central bankers trying to lower inflation, but added that he was not yet ready to say what must happen next with the Fed’s monetary policy settings.
Economic data
• US October Nonfarm Payrolls: 150,000 (Expected: 180,000, Revised Previous: 297,000)
• US October Unemployment Rate: 3.9% (Expected: 3.8%, Previous: 3.8%)
• US October Average Weekly Hours: 34.3 hours (Expected: 34.4 hours, Previous: 34.4 hours)
• US October Average Hourly Earnings YoY: 4.1% (Expected: 4.0%, Revised Previous: 4.3%)
• US October Average Hourly Earnings MoM: 0.2% (Expected: 0.3%, Revised Previous: 0.3%)
• US October Labor Force Participation Rate: 62.7% (Previous: 62.8%)
US Treasury market conditions
• The 2-year US Treasury yield decreased 15bps to around 4.84%.
• The 10-year US Treasury yield decreased 9bps to around 4.57%.
非農就業數據顯示美國勞動力市場降溫，美債收益率進一步下降
10月份美國的勞動市場增加了15萬個工作，低於9月份的29.7萬，也低於市場預期的18萬。其中，製造業就業人數因罷工而下降。與此同時，失業率上升至3.9%，為自2022年1月以來最高。數據公布後，兩位聯準會官員皆表示勞動市場放緩，正是聯準會所希望看到的。週五（11/3）10 年期美債收益率日內最低來到約4.48%，收盤下跌約9bps 至 4.57%，過去3個交易日累計下跌約36bps。
官員談話
• 明尼阿波利斯聯準銀行行長卡什卡里 (Neel Kashkari) 表示，勞動市場正在放緩，這正是我們所要的，但官員們仍須繼續關注數據，以決定未來是否升息。
• 里奇蒙聯準銀行行長巴爾金 (Thomas Barkin) 表示，就業數據放緩符合聯準會為了降低通膨所希望看到的，但聯準會尚未決定未來是否需要再升息。
經濟數據
• 美國 10 月非農新增就業人數 15 萬，預期 18 萬，修正後前值 29.7 萬
• 美國 10 月失業率 3.9%，預期 3.8%，前值 3.8%
• 美國 10 月平均每周工時 34.3 小時，預期 34.4 小時，前值 34.4 小時
• 美國 10 月平均每小時薪資年增率 4.1%，預期 4.0%，修正後前值 4.3%
• 美國 10 月平均每小時薪資月增率 0.2%，預期 0.3%，修正後前值 0.3%
• 美國 10 月勞動參與率 62.7%，預期 62.8%，前值 62.8%
美債市場狀況
• 2年期美債利率較前日下跌約15bps至約4.84%
• 10年期美債利率較前日下跌約9bps至約4.57%