Yields dropped as Fed acknowledged the influence of sustainably higher rates.
On Wednesday (11/1) Fed kept interest rates unchanged at the target range of 5.25%-5.50% as expected, stating that the economy was strong and did not rule out further rate hikes in the future. But Chairman Jerome Powell’s post-meeting remarks suggested that the sustainably higher long-term bond yields had reduced the need for further rate hikes. By the close, the 2-year Treasury yield fell about 13bps to 4.95%, and the 10-year Treasury yield fell about 16bps to 4.77%, marking a 2-week low.
Economic data
• US October ADP Employment Change: 113,000 (Expected: 150,000, Previous: 89,000)
• US October Markit Manufacturing PMI: 46.8 (Expected: 50.0, Previous: 49.8)
• US October ISM Manufacturing Index: 46.7 (Expected: 49.0, Previous: 49.0)
• US September JOLTs Job Openings: 9.553 million (Expected: 9.25 million, Previous: 9.61 million)
US Treasury market conditions
• The 2-year US Treasury yield decreased 14bps to around 4.94%.
• The 10-year US Treasury yield decreased 20bps to around 4.73%.
After the FOMC meeting today, the market is now pricing in only a 19% chance of further rate hikes in December, down from 29% yesterday, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool.
隨著聯準會承認持續較高利率的影響，收益率下降
美國聯準會周三（11/1）如市場預期，將利率維持在 5.25%-5.50% 目標範圍不變，並指出經濟強勁，且不排除未來進一步升息。但主席鮑爾 (Jerome Powell) 於會後發言表示，長債殖利率持續在高位，將降低再次升息的需要。截至收盤，2 年期美債收益率下跌約13bps至4.95%，10 年期美債收益率下跌約16bps至 4.77%，為近兩週的低點。
經濟數據
• 美國 10 月 ADP 新增就業人數報 11.3 萬，預期 15 萬，前值 8.9 萬
• 美國 10 月 Markit 製造業 PMI 報 46.8，預期 50.0，前值 49.8
• 美國 10 月 ISM 製造業指數報 46.7，預期 49.0，前值 49.0
• 美國 9 月 JOLTs 職位空缺數報 955.3 萬，預期 925 萬，前值 961 萬
美債市場狀況
• 2年期美債利率較前日下跌約13bps至約4.95%
• 10年期美債利率較前日下跌約16bps至約4.77%
根據芝加哥商品交易所集團（CME Group）的FedWatch工具，在今天的聯邦公開市場委員會（FOMC）會議之後，市場預期12月再升息的機率僅19%，較昨日的29%下降。