The 10-year Treasury yield steady as the PCE inflation data were mostly in line with expectations.
The PCE inflation data released on Friday (10/27) remained relatively high, but mostly in line with expectations. Among them, the core PCE inflation index, which is favored by the Fed, rose 3.7% year-on-year in September, the lowest since May 2021. As of the close, the rate-sensitive 2-year Treasury yield fell 3bps to 5.01%, while the 10-year yield was roughly flat at 4.84%. The Fed will hold a two-day policy meeting on October 31 and November 1 next week, and the market generally expects that the federal funds rate will remain unchanged in the range of 5.25%-5.5%.
Economic data
• US Sep PCE YoY: 3.4% (Expected: 3.4%, Previous: 3.4%)
• US Sep PCE MoM: 0.4% (Expected: 0.3%, Previous: 0.4%)
• US Sep Core PCE YoY: 3.7% (Expected: 3.7%, Previous: 3.8%)
• US Sep Core PCE MoM: 0.3% (Expected: 0.3%, Previous: 0.1%)
• US Oct Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index Final: 63.8 (Expected: 63, Previous: 68.1)
US Treasury market conditions
• The 2-year US Treasury yield decreased 3bps to around 5.01%.
• The 10-year US Treasury yield remained roughly flat at around 4.84%.
PCE通膨數據多符合預期，10年期美債收益率大致持平
週五（10/27）公布PCE通膨數據仍維持相對高位，但多符合預期。其中，受聯準會青睞的核心PCE通膨指標9 月年增 3.7%，為2021 年 5 月以來新低。截至收盤，對利率較敏感的2 年期美債殖利率下跌3bps至 5.01%，10 年期美債收益率大致持平在 4.84%。下週聯準會即將於 10 月 31 日和 11 月 1 日召開為期兩天的政策會議，市場普遍預期聯邦基金利率將維持在 5.25%-5.5% 的區間不變。
經濟數據
• 美國 9 月 PCE 年增率為 3.4%，預期 3.4%，前值 3.4%
• 美國 9 月 PCE 月增率為 0.4%，預期 0.3%，前值 0.4%
• 美國 9 月核心 PCE 年增率為 3.7%，預期 3.7%，前值 3.8%
• 美國 9 月核心 PCE 月增率為 0.3%，預期 0.3%，前值 0.1%
• 美國 10 月密大消費者信心指數終值為 63.8，預期 63，前值 68.1
美債市場狀況
• 2年期美債利率較前日下跌3bps至約5.01%
• 10年期美債利率較前日大致持平在約4.84%