The central banks of Indonesia and the Philippines unexpectedly raised interest rates consecutively 亞洲地區的印尼、菲律賓央行接連意外升息

The central banks of Indonesia and the Philippines unexpectedly raised interest rates consecutively.
 
The 10-year Treasury yield dropped significantly by 10bps to below 4.90% overnight. On Friday (10/27) during the Asian trading hours, the 10-year US Treasury yield fluctuated narrowly around 4.85%. Credit spreads of Asia IG bonds widened slightly by about 2bps compared to the previous week. Following the rate hike by the Indonesian central bank last Thursday, the central bank of the Philippines also raised rates by 25bps unexpectedly this Thursday. This move is aimed at controlling inflation, and it has strengthened market expectations for other Asian central banks to adopt a more hawkish stance.
 
Important news
The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP, the Central Bank of the Philippines) unexpectedly raised interest rates by 25bps on Thursday, outside its regular meeting schedule. This move signaled concerns that inflation will remain above the BSP’s target until mid-next year. The Governor of the BSP mentioned that further rate hikes are not ruled out at the policy meeting on the 16th of next month.
In addition to controlling inflation, central banks in emerging markets raising interest rates can narrow the interest rate differential with the United States and provide support for the exchange rates of local currencies, given prolonged USD strength:

  • Indonesia: Last Thursday, ahead of other Asian central banks, Bank Indonesia raised interest rates by 25bps to counter the depreciation of the Indonesian rupiah.
  • Turkey: On Thursday, the Turkish central bank increased interest rates by 5% to 35% to control high inflation (around 70%).
     
    Secondary market trading
  • INDON 4.85% 2033 bonds traded near 5.79%, rising by about 27bps month-to-date.
  • PHILIP 5% 2033 bonds traded near 5.77%, rising by about 21bps month-to-date.
     
    亞洲地區的印尼、菲律賓央行接連意外升息
     
    前一晚10年期美債收益率顯著回落10bps至4.90%以下,週五(10/27)亞洲時間10年期美債利率則多在4.85%附近窄幅波動。亞洲地區投資等級債券的信用利差較上週小幅走寬約2bps。繼上週四印尼央行率先升息一碼,本週四菲律賓央行亦超出市場預期升息一碼,以控制通膨,使市場對其他亞洲央行轉鷹的展望也隨之增強。
     
    重大新聞
    周四菲律賓央行在表定會議時程外升息1碼,示警通膨在明年中以前都將保持在央行目標水準之上。菲國央行行長表示,不排除在下個月16日的政策會議上進一步升息。
    除了控制通膨之外,在新興市場國家升息能縮小與美國的利差,也有助於支撐本國匯率:
  • 印尼:上週四領先其他亞洲央行,升息一碼,以阻貶印尼盾匯率
  • 土耳其:與菲律賓同日升息5%至35%,以控制高通膨(約70%)
     
    次級市場交易
  • 印尼(INDON) 4.85% 2033年券收益率約5.79%%,本月至今彈升約27bps
  • 菲律賓(PHILIP) 5% 2033年券收益率約5.77%,本月至今彈升約21bps