The 10-year Treasury yield retreated after crossing 5%.
On Monday (10/23), 10-year Treasury yields experienced significant fluctuations, with both 10-year JGB and German bund yields reaching new highs. Shortly after the London market opened, the 10-year Treasury yield briefly surpassed 5%, but then retreated by more than 15bps, closing near the intraday low at around 4.85%. Last Thursday, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell hinted at maintaining interest rates but did not rule out the possibility of further rate hikes, which pushed the 10-year Treasury yield close to 5% for the first time since 2007. On Friday, the Presidents of the Federal Reserve Banks of Philadelphia and Cleveland stated that interest rates were at or near levels that could be sustained, supporting the idea of keeping interest rates unchanged.
Remarks by officials
• The President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, Patrick Harker, restated his stance on maintaining interest rates, stressed his intolerance for a resurgence of inflation, and underscored the importance of not overreacting to data fluctuations.
• Loretta Mester, the President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, stated that interest rates are at or near the holding point. If the economy evolves as expected, the Federal Reserve will be close to ending the tightening cycle.
US Treasury market conditions
• The 2-year US Treasury yield decreased 3bps to around 5.05%.
• The 10-year US Treasury yield decreased 6bps to around 4.85%.
10年期美債收益率短暫升破5%,之後回落
週一(10/23)10年期美債收益率大幅震盪,伴隨10年期日債、德債創高,倫敦開盤後不久短暫地升破5%,隨後走低近10bps,收在接近日內低點約4.85%。上週四聯準會主席鮑爾(Jerome Powell)暗示將維持利率不變,但未來仍不排除升息的機會,使10年期美債收益率近16年來首度升至接近5%。周五費城與克利夫蘭聯準銀行行長則是表示,利率處於或接近於可維持不變的水平,支持維持利率不變。
官員談話
• 費城聯儲行長哈克(Patrick Harker)上週五重申支持按兵不動,並表示不會容忍通膨再度加速,但也無需對數據反應過度。
• 克利夫蘭聯儲行長(Loretta Mester)於上週五表示,利率處於或接近於可維持不變的水平,如果經濟發展如預期,聯準會將接近於結束緊縮週期。
美債市場狀況
• 2年期美債利率較前日下跌3bps至約5.05%
• 10年期美債利率較前日下跌6bps至約4.85%