The 10-year Treasury yield hovered near a 16-year high.
On Thursday (10/19), Fed Chair Jerome Powell hinted at keeping interest rates unchanged while leaving room for potential future rate hikes. Powell’s remarks led to a decrease in the 2-year Treasury yield, while the 10-year Treasury yield approached 5%, hovering around a 16-year high. In terms of economic data, the U.S. Department of Labor reported that the number of initial jobless claims last week reached its lowest level in 9 months, indicating a continued robust job market.
Remarks by officials
• Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated in a speech that recent data indicates progress towards Fed’s two main objectives: achieving full employment and price stability. However, inflation remains elevated. Powell agreed that the rise in yields was helping to further tighten financial conditions.
• Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee stated on Thursday that he is hopeful about the United States being able to avoid an economic recession.
Economic data
• Initial Jobless Claims for the Previous Week: 198,000 (Expected: 212,000, Revised Previous: 211,000)
• Continuing Jobless Claims for the Previous Week: 1,734,000 (Expected: 1,710,000, Revised Previous: 1,705,000)
US Treasury market conditions
• The 2-year US Treasury yield decreased 7bps to around 5.16%.
• The 10-year US Treasury yield increased 7bps to around 4.99%.
According to CME’s FedWatch Tool as of Thursday, the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged at the November meeting is around 99% (vs 93% a day ago), and in December the probability is about 75% (vs 61% a day ago), suggesting that investors’ expectations for the Fed to stay put until the end of the year are increasing.
10年期美債收益率在 16 年高點附近持續徘徊
週四(10/19)聯準會主席鮑爾(Jerome Powell)暗示維持利率不變,但也為未來加息留下空間。鮑爾的演說後,2 年期公債收益率下走低,而10 年期公債收益率則是逼近 5%,持續徘徊在 16 年來高點。經濟數據方面,美國勞工部公布上周初次請領失業金人數降至 9個月以來最低水平,顯示就業市場持續強勁。
官員談話
• 聯準會主席鮑爾(Jerome Powell)發表演說表示,近期數據表明央行在實現充分就業及物價穩定兩大目標上正在取得進展,但通膨依舊過高。若長期公債殖利率繼續上升,可能會降低進一步升息的必要性。
• 芝加哥聯準銀行行長古爾斯比 (Austan Goolsbee) 周四稍晚指出,對美國能夠避免經濟衰退抱有希望。
經濟數據
• 美國上周初領失業金人數報 19.8 萬,預期 21.2 萬,修正後前值 21.1 萬
• 美國上周續領失業金人數報 173.4 萬,預期 171 萬,前值 170.5 萬
美債市場狀況
• 2年期美債利率較前日下跌7bps至約5.16%
• 10年期美債利率較前日上漲7bps至約4.99%
芝商所 (CME) 的 FedWatch 工具顯示,截至周四,聯準會將在11月會議維持利率不變的機率約為 99%,高於前一天的 93%;12月會議維持利率不變的機率約為75%,高於前一天的 61%,顯示投資人對於聯準會在今年底之前按兵不動的預期升溫。