Treasury yields rose on stronger retail sales, leading to a higher rate outlook
In September, U.S. retail sales data exceeded expectations, leading the market to anticipate that the Fed might keep rates higher for a longer period. On Tuesday (10/17), the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield rose by 11bps to 5.20%, while the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield reached a high of 4.86% during the day and eventually closed at 4.85%, reaching its highest levels in 16 years. Data showed that retail sales in September increased by 0.7%, well above the market’s expectation of 0.3%. Core sales, which exclude automobiles, also rose by 0.6%, exceeding the anticipated 0.2%. This indicates that household demand remains robust, and consumer spending continues to show strength.
Economic data
• U.S. September Retail Sales MoM: 0.7% (Expected: 0.3%, Previous: 0.8%)
• U.S. September Core Retail Sales MoM: 0.6% (Expected: 0.2%, Previous: 0.9%)
• U.S. September Industrial Production YoY: 0.1% (Previous: 0.1%)
• U.S. September Industrial Production MoM: 0.3% (Expected: 0.0%, Previous: 0.0%)
US Treasury market conditions
• The 2-year US Treasury yield increased 12bps to around 5.22%.
• The 10-year US Treasury yield increased 13bps to around 4.84%.
CME Group’s FedWatch Tool indicates that following the release of retail sales data, the probability for further rates hikes in December has increased to over 43%, up from about 34% just one day ago.
優於預期的零售數據推升利率展望，使美債收益率走高
美國 9 月零售銷售數據超預期，市場預期聯準會可能將利率在更長時間內維持高位，週二（10/17）2 年期美債收益率攀升 11bps至 5.20%，10 年期美債收益率日內最高觸及 4.86%，最終收在 4.85%，來到16年以來的最高。數據方面，9 月零售銷售月增 0.7%，遠高於市場預估的 0.3% ；扣除汽車之後的核心銷售月增 0.6%，亦高於預估的 0.2%，數據顯示家庭需求持續強勁，消費力道持續不衰。
經濟數據
• 美國 9 月零售銷售月增率為 0.7%，預期 0.3%，前值 0.8%
• 美國 9 月核心零售銷售月增率為 0.6%，預期 0.2%，前值 0.9%
• 美國 9 月工業生產指數年增率為 0.1%，前值 0.1%
• 美國 9 月工業生產指數月增率為 0.3%，預期 0.0%，前值 0.0%
美債市場狀況
• 2年期美債利率較前日上漲12bps至約5.22%
• 10年期美債利率較前日上漲13bps至約4.84%
芝商所集團（CME Group）的FedWatch工具顯示，零售銷售數據公布後，期貨價格顯示聯準會於12月份再升息機率超過43%，相較於一天前約34%。