Middle East conflict continues, safe-haven demand pushes Treasury yields lower
As signs indicated that Israel is preparing for a ground invasion of Gaza, the Middle East risk heightened. International oil prices rose by almost 6% in a single day, and safe-haven buying also supported the bond market on Friday (10/13), reversing some of the steepening of Treasury yields the previous day. The University of Michigan’s October survey data showed that consumers’ inflation expectations for the next year were 3.8%, higher than the expected 3.2%, and the interest rate-sensitive 2-year Treasury yield fell relatively less. In addition, Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker said on Friday that he prefers to keep interest rates unchanged.
Remarks by officials
• Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker stated that inflation is cooling and the labor market is easing, indicating that the current policy rate is restrictive. Unless there are major changes in economic data, he prefers to keep the interest rate unchanged, which will steadily lower inflation and make the market more balanced.
Economic data
• U.S. September Export Prices MoM: 0.7% (Expected: 0.5%, Previous: 1.1%)
• U.S. September Import Prices MoM: 0.1% (Expected: 0.5%, Previous: 0.6%)
• U.S. October University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index (Preliminary): 63 (Expected: 67.2, Previous: 68.1)
• U.S. October University of Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectation (Preliminary): 3.8% (Previous: 3.2%)
US Treasury market conditions
• The 2-year US Treasury yield decreased 2bps to around 5.05%.
• The 10-year US Treasury yield decreased 7bps to around 4.63%.
中東衝突持續，避險需求使美債收益率走低
有跡象顯示以色列正準備對加薩發動地面攻勢，中東衝突情勢升溫，國際油價單日漲幅近6%，避險買盤在周五（10/13）亦對債市構成支撐，回吐部分前一日美債利率的陡化走勢。密西根大學10月調查數據顯示，消費者對未來1年的通膨預期為3.8%，高於預期的3.2%，對利率敏感的2年期公債收益率走低的幅度相對較小。此外，費城聯準銀行行長哈克 (Patrick Harker) 於週五表示傾向於保持利率不變。
官員談話
• 費城聯準銀行行長哈克 (Patrick Harker) 表示，物價正在降溫且就業市場吃緊狀況有所緩解，顯示目前的政策利率已具限制性，除非接下來經濟數據發生重大變化，否則傾向利率按兵不動，就能穩步壓低通膨，讓市場更加平衡。
經濟數據
• 美國 9 月出口價格指數月增率報 0.7%，預期 0.5%，前值
• 美國 9 月進口價格指數月增率報 0.1%，預期 0.5%，前值 0.6%
• 美國 10 月密大消費者信心指數初值報63，預期 67.2，前值 68.1
• 美國 10 月密大一年期通膨預期初值報3.8%，前值 3.2%
美債市場狀況
• 2年期美債利率較前日下跌2bps至約5.05%
• 10年期美債利率較前日下跌7bps至約4.63%