Inflation data and 30-year bond auction drove yield curve bear steepened
On Thursday (10/12), the 10-year Treasury yield remained relatively stable below 4.6% during the Asian session, and started to rise after the release of U.S. September CPI inflation data, coupled with a 30-year bond auction that fell short of expectations. Long-term Treasury yields led the increase and closed near their intraday highs, resulting in a steepening of the yield curve. The data showed that consumer prices in the U.S. increased in September due to higher costs for rent and gasoline, with a monthly CPI increase of 0.4%, which was lower than the previous month but higher than expected. After excluding volatile food and energy components, the core CPI increased by 0.3% on monthly basis, in line with both expectation and the previous month.
Economic data
• U.S. September CPI YoY: 3.7% (Expected: 3.6%, Previous: 3.6%)
• U.S. September CPI MoM: 0.4% (Expected: 0.3%, Previous: 0.6%)
• U.S. September Core CPI YoY: 4.1% (Expected: 4.1%, Previous: 4.3%)
• U.S. September Core CPI MoM: 0.3% (Expected: 0.3%, Previous: 0.3%)
• Initial Jobless Claims for the Previous Week: 209,000 (Expected: 210,000, Revised Previous: 209,000)
• Continuing Jobless Claims for the Previous Week: 1,702,000 (Expected: 1,680,000, Revised Previous: 1,672,000)
US Treasury market conditions
• The 2-year US Treasury yield increased 8bps to around 5.07%.
• The 10-year US Treasury yield increased 14bps to around 4.70%.
According to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, following the release of CPI inflation data, interest rate futures indicated that the Fed is likely to keep rates unchanged in November, with the probability of further rate hikes in December increasing to around 35% (vs 28% one day ago).
通膨數據與30年期美債標售結果使殖利率曲線熊市趨陡
周四（10/12）10年期美債收益率於亞洲時段在4.6%以下保持相對平穩，美國9月份的CPI通膨數據公布之後開始走高，加上30年期美債標售結果不如預期，長天期美債收益率領漲，收盤於接近日內最高水位，殖利率曲線呈現熊市趨陡。數據顯示，由於租金和汽油成本上升，美國9月份的CPI月增0.4%，低於前期但高於預期，排除食品和能源的波動因素後，核心CPI月增0.3%，則是符合預期與前期。
經濟數據
• 美國 9 月 CPI 年增率報 3.7%，預期 3.6%，前值 3.7%
• 美國 9 月 CPI 月增率報 0.4%，預期 0.3%，前值 0.6%
• 美國 9 月核心 CPI 年增率報 4.1%，預期 4.1%，前值 4.3%
• 美國 9 月核心 CPI 月增率報 0.3%，預期 0.3%，前值 0.3%
• 上周初領失業金人數報 20.9 萬，預期 21 萬，修正後前值 20.9 萬
• 上周續領失業金人數報 170.2 萬，預期 168 萬，修正後前值 167.2 萬
美債市場狀況
• 2年期美債利率較前日上漲8bps至約5.07%
• 10年期美債利率較前日上漲14bps至約4.70%
根據芝商所（CME Group）的FedWatch工具，通膨數據公布後，利率期貨顯示聯準會將在11月份保持利率不變，而12月份再升息的機率上升至約35％(一天前約28%)。