Risk aversion pushed the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield down to 4.6%
The war in Middle East continues, the market is risk-averse, and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell to a nearly 2-week low on Wednesday (10/11). PPI data showed that U.S. producer prices rose in September, pushing up the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield, which reflects interest rate expectations, slightly. As of the close, the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield rose 2bps to around 5%, while the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell 7bps to around 4.6%. In addition, the minutes of the Fed’s FOMC meeting in September, released on Wednesday, showed that the Fed took a cautious stance last month due to uncertainty about the U.S. economic outlook, including changes in financial markets, potential oil price shocks and the impact of labor union strikes on the economy.
Economic data
• U.S. September PPI YoY: 2.2% (Expected: 1.6%, Previous: 2.0%)
• U.S. September PPI MoM: 0.5% (Expected: 0.3%, Previous: 0.7%)
• U.S. September Core PPI YoY: 2.7% (Expected: 2.3%, Previous: 2.5%)
• U.S. September Core PPI MoM: 0.3% (Expected: 0.2%, Previous: 0.2%)
Remarks by officials
• Fed Governor Michelle Bowman reiterated her previous view that further interest rate hikes are still needed and that interest rates should be kept at their peak for a while to bring inflation back to the 2% target, but her remarks softened from the previous “multiple” rate hikes.
US Treasury market conditions
• The 2-year US Treasury yield increased 2bps to around 4.99%.
• The 10-year US Treasury yield decreased 7bps to around 4.58%.
避險情緒使10年期美債收益率下跌至4.6%
中東戰火持續，市場避險情緒濃烈，周三（10/11）10年期美債利率跌至近兩周低點。PPI數據顯示，美國9月份的生產者價格上升，反應利率預期的2年期美債利率小幅上升。截至收盤，2年期美債利率上升2bps至5%附近，10年期美債利率則是下跌7bps，回落至4.6%附近。此外，周三公佈的九月份聯準會利率決議會議紀要顯示，由於對美國經濟走勢的不確定性，包括金融市場的變化、潛在的油價震盪和勞工工會罷工對經濟的影響，故聯準會於上個月採取了謹慎立場。
經濟數據
• 美國 9 月 PPI 年增率報 2.2%，預期 1.6%，修正後前值 2.0%
• 美國 9 月 PPI 月增率報 0.5%，預期 0.3%，修正後前值 0.7%
• 美國 9 月核心 PPI 年增率報 2.7%，預期 2.3%，修正後前值 2.5%
• 美國 9 月核心 PPI 月增率報 0.3%，預期 0.2%，修正後前值 0.2%
官員談話
• 聯準會理事傑鮑曼 (Michelle Bowman) 重申先前的觀點，認為仍須進一步升息並把利率維持在高峰一陣子，好讓通膨回落到 2% 目標，不過她的發言較先前的「多次」升息有所軟化。
美債市場狀況
• 2年期美債利率較前日上漲2bps至約4.99%
• 10年期美債利率較前日下跌7bps約4.58%