Safe-haven demand and dovish comments from officials push 10-year Treasury yield away from 16-year high 避險買盤與官員鴿派言論使10年期美債收益率脫離16年高點

Safe-haven demand and dovish comments from officials push 10-year Treasury yield away from 16-year high

With the U.S. Treasury markets closed on Columbus Day, Fed Board of Governor Philip Jefferson and Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan released dovish comments on the potential pause in rate hikes in November. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic also suggested on Tuesday that there might be no further need for rate hikes. Furthermore, ongoing tensions in the Israel-Palestine conflict have driven up safe-haven demand, triggering U.S. Treasury yields to decline by more than 12bps across the curve on Tuesday (10/10), with 2-year yield dropping to its lowest level in a month, while 10-year yield moved away from 16-year high.

Remarks by officials
• Federal Reserve Board of Governor Philip Jefferson stated on Monday that the tightening financial conditions resulting from rising bond yields might deter the Fed from further rate hikes.
• Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Lorie Logan stated on Monday that the recent surge in bond yields may imply a reduced necessity for the Fed to raise rates again.
• Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic noted on Tuesday that the restrictive nature of monetary policy is sufficient to bring down inflation to the 2% target.
• Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari expressed on Tuesday that he does not yet believe that the spike in long-term bond yields will diminish the need for further rate hikes.

US Treasury market conditions
• The 2-year US Treasury yield decreased 11bps to around 4.98%.
• The 10-year US Treasury yield decreased 14bps to around 4.66%.

According to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, changes in the market conditions recently have led to a decrease in the probability of further rate hikes by year-end. The probability of keeping interest rates unchanged in November is around 85% (vs 72% a week ago), while the probability for December is about 72% (vs 53% a week ago).

避險買盤與官員鴿派言論使10年期美債收益率脫離16年高點

周一美債市場因哥倫布日休市期間,聯準會理事傑佛森(Philip Jefferson)和達拉斯聯儲行長羅根(Lorie Logan)釋出11月可能再度暫停升息的鴿派言論,而亞特蘭大聯儲行長(Raphael Bostic)於週二也發表了認為沒有必要進一步加息的講話。此外,以巴衝突持續,趨使避險買盤升溫,周二(10/10)美債收益率收盤全線下跌至少12bps,2年期美債收益率降至一個月來的最低水平,10年期美債收益率則脫離了16年來的高點。

官員談話
• 聯準會理事傑佛森 (Philip Jefferson) 於週一表示,美債殖利率上升而導致的金融環境緊縮,可能會阻止聯準會進一步上調政策利率。
• 達拉斯聯準銀行行長羅根 (Lorie Logan) 於週一表示,近期美債殖利率的飆升,可能意味著聯準會再次提高基準利率的必要性降低。
• 亞特蘭大聯準銀行總裁波斯提克 (Raphael Bostic) 週二指出,貨幣政策的限制性足以將物價降低至 2% 的目標。
• 明尼阿波利斯聯準銀行總裁卡什卡利 (Neel Kashkari) 週二表示,他還不相信長債殖利率飆升會減少進一步升息必要性。

美債市場狀況
• 2年期美債利率較前日下跌11bps至約4.98%
• 10年期美債利率較前日下跌14bps約4.66%

根據芝商所(CME Group)的FedWatch工具,隨著近日的市況變化,利率期貨顯示年底之前的升息機率下降,11月份維持利率不變的機率約85%(一週前約72%),而12月份維持利率不變的機率約72%(一週前約53%)。