The 10-year Treasury yield approached 4.8% again 10年期美債收益率再度升至4.8%附近

The 10-year Treasury yield approached 4.8% again

The employment report on Friday (10/6) showed that the non-farm payrolls increased by 336,000 in September, far exceeding expectations and marking the highest increase in eight months. Despite the Fed’s aggressive tightening policy to control inflation, the U.S. economy remains strong. The bond market sold off after the employment data was released, with the 10-year Treasury yield rising to 4.88% and the 30-year Treasury yield reaching 5.05%, both the highest levels since 2007. They later fell slightly, with the 10-year Treasury yield closing around 4.8% and the 30-year Treasury yield approaching 5% again.

Economic data
• U.S. September Non-farm Payrolls: 336,000 (Expected: 170,000, Previous: 227,000)
• U.S. September Unemployment Rate: 3.8% (Expected: 3.7%, Previous: 3.8%)
• U.S. September Average Hourly Earnings YoY: 4.2% (Expected: 4.3%, Previous: 4.3%)
• U.S. September Average Hourly Earnings MoM: 0.2% (Expected: 0.3%, Previous: 0.2%)
• U.S. September Labor Force Participation Rate: 62.8% (Expected: 62.8%, Previous: 62.8%)
• U.S. September Average Weekly Hours: 34.4 hours (Expected: 34.3 hours, Previous: 34.4 hours)

US Treasury market conditions
• The 2-year US Treasury yield increased 6bps to around 5.08%.
• The 10-year US Treasury yield increased 7bps to around 4.79%.

In recent weeks, interest rates have risen sharply as investors reassessed the likelihood that the Fed will keep rates higher for longer and may continue to raise them if the labor market remains robust and inflation stays above its 2% target. According to the FedWatch Tool from the CME Group, the probability of further rate hikes in November is about 27% (vs 18% a week ago), while the probability of further rate hikes in December is about 42% (vs 35% a week ago).

10年期美債收益率再度升至4.8%附近

週五(10/6)的就業報告顯示,非農就業人數在9月增加了33.6萬人,遠高於預期,也是八個月以來的最高增幅。儘管聯準會以積極的緊縮政策控制通膨,但美國經濟仍然強韌。就業數據公布後,掀起債市拋售潮,10年期美債收益率升至4.88%,30年期美債收益率達到5.05%,均為2007年以來最高水平。之後略有回落,10年期美債收益率收在4.8%附近,而30年期美債收益率則是再度接近5%。

經濟數據
• 美國 9 月非農新增就業報 33.6 萬人,預期 17 萬人,修正後前值 22.7 萬人
• 美國 9 月失業率報 3.8%,預期 3.7%,前值 3.8%
• 美國 9 月平均每小時薪資年增率報 4.2%,預期 4.3%,前值 4.3%
• 美國 9 月平均每小時薪資月增率報 0.2%,預期 0.3%,前值 0.2%
• 美國 9 月勞動參與率報 62.8%,預期 62.8%,前值 62.8%
• 美國 9 月平均每周工時報 34.4 小時,預期 34.3 小時,前值 34.4 小時

美債市場狀況
• 2年期美債利率較前日上漲6bps至約5.08%
• 10年期美債利率較前日上漲7bps至約4.79%

近幾周,隨著投資者重新評估美聯儲將更長時間保持較高利率的可能性,並且如果勞動市場保持穩健且通脹保持在2%目標以上,可能會繼續升息,使近期利率快速上升。根據芝商所(CME Group)的FedWatch工具,11月份再升息機率約27%(一週前約18%),而12月份再升息機率約42%(一週前約35%)。