The 10-year Treasury yield retreated from 16-year highs
On Wednesday (10/4), the ADP report unexpectedly dropped in U.S. job additions for September to the lowest level since early 2021, with a slowdown in the services sector. Additionally, crude oil saw its largest decline in over a year. After a significant surge in long-term U.S. Treasury yields overnight, during the Asian trading session, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield briefly approached 4.9%, while the 30-year Treasury yield touched 5.0% before retreating. Yields continued to decline after the release of the ADP report, which revealed lower job additions in September than what the market had anticipated. The long-term U.S. Treasury yields closed at relatively lower levels within the day, ending the week’s continuous ascent from their recent highs, marking a departure from levels not seen since 2007.
Economic data
• US September ADP employment report: 89,000 jobs added (Expected: 150,000, Previous: 180,000)
• U.S. September Markit Services PMI (Final Reading): 50.1 (Expected: 50.2, Previous: 50.5).
• U.S. September Markit Composite PMI (Final Reading): 50.2 (Expected: 50.1, Previous: 50.1).
• U.S. August Durable Goods Orders (Month-over-Month, Revised): 0.1% (Previous: 0.2%).
• U.S. August Factory Orders (Month-over-Month): 1.2% (Expected: 0.2%, Previous: -2.1%).
• U.S. September ISM Non-Manufacturing Index: 53.6 (Expected: 53.6, Previous: 54.5).
US Treasury market conditions
• The 2-year US Treasury yield decreased 11bps to around 5.04%.
• The 10-year US Treasury yield decreased 8bps to around 4.72%.
The upcoming non-farm payroll report set to be released on Friday holds more significance compared to the ADP employment data. If the data also indicates a cooling job market, it may alleviate concerns in the market about interest rates remaining elevated for an extended period.
10年期美債收益率自16年以來高位回落
週三（10/4）ADP報告顯示美國9月新增就業意外降至2021年初以來最低，服務業成長也有所放緩。此外，原油創逾一年最大跌幅。長天期美債收益率在前一天大彈之後，亞洲時段開盤續漲，10年期美債收益率一度來到接近4.9%附近，30年期國債收益率則觸及5.0%，之後回落，並在公布美國9月份ADP新增就業低於市場預期後持續走低，收盤於日內相對低位，使長天期美債收益率結束本週以來持續創新高的情況，脫離16年以來的高位。
經濟數據
- 美國 9 月 ADP 新增就業人數報 8.9 萬，預期 15 萬，前值 18 萬
- 美國 9 月 Markit 服務業 PMI 終值報 50.1，預期 50.2，前值 50.5
- 美國 9 月 Markit 綜合 PMI 終值報 50.2，預期 50.1，前值 50.1
- 美國 8 月耐久財訂單月增率修正值報 0.1%，前值 0.2%
- 美國 8 月工廠訂單月增率報 1.2%，預期 0.2%，前值 – 2.1%
- 美國 9 月 ISM 非製造業指數報 53.6，預期 53.6，前值 54.5
美債市場狀況
• 2年期美債利率較前日下跌11bps至約5.04%
• 10年期美債利率較前日下跌8bps約4.72%
相較於ADP就業數據，本週五即將公布的非農就業報告更顯重要，若數據也顯示就業情況正在降溫，將有利於降低市場對於利率維持於高位較長時間的擔憂。