The 10-year Treasury yield surged to 4.8%
On Tuesday (10/3), the release of JOLTs data showed 9.6 million job openings in August, far exceeding the expected 8.8 million, reaffirming the robustness of the labor market. Recent data from the ISM Manufacturing PMI also indicated a rebound in manufacturing production. Furthermore, Loretta Mester, the President of the Cleveland Fed, suggested that the Fed might need to raise interest rates once more this year and then maintain the rates higher for a longer period to bring inflation back to 2% target. The 10-year treasury yield hit 4.8% and the 30-year bond yield surpassed 4.9%.
Remarks by officials
• Loretta Mester, President of the Cleveland Fed, noted that the Fed might need to raise interest rates once more this year and then maintain them at higher levels for a longer period to achieve the 2% inflation target. The decision on whether the federal funds rate needs to be higher than the current level and for how long restrictive policies need to be maintained will depend on economic developments.
• Raphael Bostic, President of the Atlanta Fed, stated that there is no urgent need for the Fed to raise its policy interest rate again, and rates should be kept for a long time at higher levels to bring inflation back to the 2% target.
Economic data
• US August JOLTs job openings: 9.61 million (Expected: 8.8 million, Previous: 8.92 million)
US Treasury market conditions
• The 2-year US Treasury yield increased 4bps to around 5.15%.
• The 10-year US Treasury yield increased 13bps to around 4.80%.
The strong economic data highlighted the US economy’s resilience to high-interest rates, intensifying concerns that the Fed would need to keep interest rates elevated for an extended period to control inflation. As a result, long-term US Treasury bond yields experienced a substantial jump, reaching their highest levels since 2007 again. The yield curve continued to steepen, with the yield spread between 2-year and 10-year US Treasury bonds was around -35 bps, the steepest level since March of this year. The market will be closely watching the release of the September nonfarm payrolls report on Friday (10/6) to gain insight into the latest developments in the job market.
10年期美債收益率大彈至4.8%
週二（10/3）公布JOLTs數據，八月份的職位空缺數達到960萬，遠高於880萬的預期，勞動市場依然強勁。近日最新的ISM製造業採購經理人指數亦顯示製造業生產正在反彈。此外，克利夫蘭聯準銀行行長梅斯特（Loretta Mester）指出，聯準會今年可能需要再升息一次，然後在一段時間內將利率維持在較高水平，以使通膨回到2%目標。10年期美債收益率達到4.8%，30年期國債收益率則來到4.9%以上。
官員談話
• 克利夫蘭聯準銀行行長梅斯特（Loretta Mester）指出，聯準會今年可能需要再升息一次，然後在一段時間內將利率維持在較高水平，以使通膨回到2%目標。聯邦基金利率是否需要高於當前水平，以及需要維持限制性政策多長的時間，將取決於經濟前景的發展情況。
• 亞特蘭大聯準銀行行長波斯蒂克（Raphael Bostic）表示，聯準會沒有迫切需要再次提高其政策利率，應「長時間」把利率維持在較高水準，使通膨回落至 2% 目標。
經濟數據
• 美國 8 月 JOLTs 職位空缺數報 961 萬，預期 880 萬，修正後前值 892 萬
美債市場狀況
• 2年期美債利率較前日上升4bps至約5.15%
• 10年期美債利率較前日上升13bps約4.80%
近期健康的經濟數據顯示美國經濟對高利率的韌性，加強了對聯準會將長期保持高利率以控制通膨的擔憂，使長天期美債收益率大彈，再創2007年以來的最高水平。殖利率曲線持續趨陡，以2 年期與10 年期美債收益率收益率估計的利差約-35bps，為今年3月以來最陡峭的水平。接下來市場關注周五（10/6）將 公布 9 月非農就業報告,，以了解就業市場的最新發展。