The 10-year Treasury yield is approaching 4.7%
On Monday (10/2), the latest release of the U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index reached a 10-month high in September, and FOMC Governor Michelle Bowman reiterated the need for multiple rate hikes to curb inflation. Expectations of rate hikes pushed 10-year U.S. Treasury yield to its highest levels since 2007. Experienced significant volatility in September, 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.70% area during trading hours, closing up 11 bps at 4.68%. Additionally, the U.S. Congress passed a stopgap funding bill on Saturday, temporarily resolving the government shutdown crisis and eliminating the risk of delayed data releases, which had led the market to anticipate that delayed data would keep the Fed from changing interest rates.
Remarks by officials
• Chairman of FOMC Jerome Powell stated on Monday that the Fed is working to foster a sustained and robust labor market, emphasizing the need for price stability to achieve this goal.
• Vice Chairman of MOMC Michael Barr indicated that the Fed may be at or very close to a sufficiently restrictive level of interest rates, and officials need to carefully consider whether to raise rates again. The bigger question now is how long the Fed needs to maintain high rates to curb inflation.
• FOMC Governor Michelle Bowman noted that U.S. inflation has indeed moderated, but energy prices remain elevated, suggesting the need for multiple rate hikes to bring inflation down to the 2% target.
• Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin mentioned that the strong U.S. real estate market may necessitate a more pronounced slowdown in other sectors of the economy to contain inflation.
Economic data
• US September Manufacturing PMI final reading 49.8 (Expected: 48.9, Previous: 47.9)
• US August Construction Spending MoM: 0.5% (Expected: 0.5%, Previous: 0.7%)
• US September ISM Manufacturing 49.0 (Expected: 47.7, Previous: 47.6)
US Treasury market conditions
• The 2-year US Treasury yield increased 6bps to around 5.10%.
• The 10-year US Treasury yield increased 11bps to around 4.68%.
10年期美債收益率逼近4.7%
週一(10/2)最新公佈的美國9月ISM製造業指數升至10個月最高,聯準會理事鮑曼 (Michelle Bowman) 重申還需多次加息才能遏制通膨,加息預期推動10年期美債殖利率觸及2007年以來的新高。繼 9 月大幅波動之後,10 年期美債收益率盤中升至4.70% 附近,收盤上漲 11bps 至 4.68%。此外,美國國會在周六晚上通過了一項臨時資金法案,政府關門危機暫時解除,也消除了政府數據公佈可能被推遲的風險,此前市場一度預期數據延遲公布將使聯準會保持利率不變。
官員談話
• 聯準會主席鮑爾(Jerome Powell)周一表示,聯準會正在努力促進持久而強勁的勞動市場,為了實現這一目標需要價格穩定。
• 聯準會副主席巴爾 (Michael Barr) 指出,聯準會可能處於或非常接近具有足夠限制性的利率水平,官員們可以謹慎考慮是否再次升息。現在更大的問題是,央行需要將高利率維持多久才能抑制通膨。
• 聯準會理事鮑曼 (Michelle Bowman) 指出,美國通膨確實回落,但能源價格仍處高位,可能需要多次升息,才能把通膨降至央行的目標。
• 里奇蒙聯準銀行行長巴爾金 (Thomas Barkin) 則提到,美國房地產市場強勢,聯準會需要使其他經濟領域的出現更大程度放緩,以遏制通膨。
經濟數據
美國 9 月製造業 PMI 終值報 49.8,預期 48.9,前值 47.9
美國 8 月營建支出月增率報 0.5%,預期 0.5%,前值 0.7%
美國 9 月 ISM 製造業指數報 49.0,預期 47.7,前值 47.6
美債市場狀況
• 2年期美債利率較前日上升6bps至約5.10%
• 10年期美債利率較前日上升11bps約4.68%