The 10-year Treasury yield recorded the biggest monthly increase this year
The latest PCE inflation data released on Friday (9/29) showed that prices in the United States stabilized in August, with the core PCE price index rising by 0.1% on monthly basis, lower than the expected and the previous month. This marks the smallest monthly increase since November 2020. Following the release of inflation data, the 2-year US Treasury yield dropped to a near two-week low of around 5.02% before retracing. The 10-year US Treasury bond yield, after reaching a 16-year high the previous day, remained at elevated levels with little change in closing, but it recorded a cumulative increase of 46 bps in September, the largest monthly increase this year. John Williams, President of the New York Fed and Vice Chairman of FOMC, indicated on Friday that interest rates may be at their peaks. He projected that the US inflation rate would decrease gradually over time and would fall to the 2% target in 2025. Chairman of FOMC Jerome Powell stated on Thursday that the Fed’s ability to influence the economy depends on people’s understanding of monetary policy.
Remarks by officials
• John Williams, President of the New York Fed and Vice Chairman of FOMC, stated on Friday that interest rates may be at their peaks. He projected that the US inflation rate would be around 3.25% in 2023, approximately 2.5% in 2024, and would fall to the 2% target in 2025.
• Chairman of FOMC Jerome Powell stated on Thursday that the Fed’s ability to influence the economy depends on people’s understanding of monetary policy.
Economic data
• US August core PCE price index YoY: 3.9% (Expected: 3.9%, Previous: 4.3%)
• US August core PCE price index MoM: 0.1% (Expected: 0.2%, Previous: 0.2%)
• US August PCE price index YoY: 3.5% (Expected: 3.5%, Previous: 3.4%)
• US August PCE price index MoM: 0.4% (Expected: 0.5%, Previous: 0.2%)
US Treasury market conditions
• The 2-year US Treasury yield decreased 1bp to around 5.04%.
• The 10-year US Treasury yield remained roughly unchanged at around 4.57%.
9月為10年期美債收益率今年以來最大的月增幅
週五（9/29）最新公佈的PCE通膨數據顯示美國的物價在8月份趨於穩定，核心 PCE 物價指數月增 0.1%，低於預期與前期，且為 2020 年 11 月以來最小月增幅度。通膨數據公佈後，2年期美債收益率降至近兩週低點，至約5.02%附近，之後小幅回升。在前一日觸及 16年新高後，10 年期美債收益率則於高位震盪，收盤變化不大，但累計9月彈幅達46bps，為今年以來的最大月增幅度。紐約聯準銀行行長、聯準會副主席威廉斯 (John Williams) 週五指出，利率可能已處於峰值，預期通膨將逐年回落，並於2025 年降至 2% 目標。聯準會主席鮑爾(Jerome Powell)則於週四表示，聯準會影響經濟的能力取決於人們對貨幣政策的理解程度。
官員談話
• 紐約聯準銀行行、聯準會副主席威廉斯 (John Williams) 週五指出，利率或處於峰值，預計 2023 年美國通膨率為 3.25%、2024 年約 2.5%、2025 年將降至 2% 目標。
• 聯準會主席鮑爾(Jerome Powell)週四表示，聯準會影響經濟的能力取決於人們對貨幣政策的理解程度。
經濟數據
美國 8 月核心 PCE 物價指數年增 3.9%，預期 3.9%，前值 4.3%
美國 8 月核心 PCE 物價指數月增 0.1%，預期 0.2%，前值 0.2%
美國 8 月 PCE 物價指數年增 3.5%，預期 3.5%，前值 3.4%
美國 8 月 PCE 物價指數月增 0.4%，預期 0.5%，前值 0.2%
美債市場狀況
• 2年期美債利率較前日下跌1bps至約5.04%
• 10年期美債利率較前日大致不變，約4.57%