Officials’ Dovish Remarks Eased Rates from 16-Year highs 官員的鴿派言論使利率自16年來新高回落

Officials’ Dovish Remarks Eased Rates from 16-Year highs

Economic data on Thursday (9/28) indicated that the U.S. economy maintained a relatively robust growth pace in the second quarter, and initial jobless claims for the past week came in below expectations, suggesting a healthy labor market. Following the data release, the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury hit a fresh 16-year peak before retracing. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee hinted that the Fed may not need to raise rates further. Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin stated that it is too early to judge whether another rate hike is necessary.

Remarks by officials
• Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee hinted that the Fed may not need to raise rates further, as overreliance on traditional economic theories could lead to central bank mistakes.
• Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin stated that it is too early to judge whether another rate hike is necessary.

Economic data
• The U.S. Q2 Core PCE Price Index seasonally adjusted came in at a final reading of 3.7%, in line with expectations, and unchanged from the previous estimate of 3.7%.
• The U.S. Q2 Real GDP seasonally adjusted annual rate was 2.1%, slightly below expectations of 2.2%, and unchanged from the previous reading of 2.1%.
• Initial jobless claims in the U.S. for the past week were 204,000, lower than the expected 215,000, and slightly up from the previous week’s 202,000.
• Continuing jobless claims in the U.S. for the past week were 1.67 million, in line with expectations of 1.675 million, and up from the previous week’s 1.658 million.

US Treasury market conditions
• The 2-year US Treasury yield decreased 7bps to around 5.06%.
• The 10-year US Treasury yield decreased 3bps to at around 4.57%.

官員的鴿派言論使利率自16年來新高回落

週四(9/28)的經濟數據顯示美國經濟在第二季度保持了相對穩健的增長速度,且上週初領申領失業金的人數低於預期,勞動市場依然健康。數據公布後,10 年期美債殖利率一度升至16 年新高後回落。芝加哥聯準銀行行長古爾斯比 (Austan Goolsbee) 暗示聯準會可能無需進一步升息。里奇蒙聯準銀行行長巴爾金 (Thomas Barkin) 則表示,現在判斷是否需要再次升息還為時過早。

官員談話
• 芝加哥聯準銀行行長古爾斯比 (Austan Goolsbee) 警告,長期以來關於如何結束通膨之戰的觀點可能不再適用,過度看重傳統經濟學理論,可能導致央行犯錯,暗示聯準會可能無需進一步升息。
• 里奇蒙聯準銀行行長巴爾金 (Thomas Barkin) 則表示,現在判斷是否需要再次升息還為時過早。

經濟數據
• 美國第二季核心個人消費支出 (PCE) 物價指數季比終值 3.7%,預期 3.7%,前額 3.7%。
• 美國第二季實質 GDP 季比年化終值 2.1%,預期 2.2%,前值 2.1%
• 美國上周初領申請失業救濟人數 為 20.4萬人,預期 21.5萬人,前值 20.2萬人
• 美國上周續領申請失業救濟人數 為 167 萬人,預期 167.5 萬人,前值 165.8 萬人

美債市場狀況
• 2年期美債利率較前日下跌7bps至約5.06%
• 10年期美債利率較前日下跌3bps至約4.57%