The 10-year Treasury yield hovered at its high since 2007
On Tuesday (9/26), the 10-year US Treasury yield fluctuated above 4.5%, climbing to 4.55%, its highest since October 2007. The yield-sensitive 2-year US Treasury yield remained relatively stable around 5.12%. Recent economic data showed a decline in US consumer confidence and a slump in new home sales, sparking concerns about the US economic situation. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari stated that the Fed has a 60% chance of bringing inflation down to its 2% target without causing significant harm to the economy, but there is a 40% chance that stubborn inflation may require further rate hikes.
Remarks by officials
• Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari stated that there is a 60% chance that the Fed can bring inflation down to its 2% target without causing significant harm to the economy, while he believes there is a 40% chance that inflation is deeply rooted and may require further rate hikes more than once.
Economic data
• US August building permits revised to 6.8%, previous 6.9%
• US August building permits annualized total revised to 1.541 million units, previous 1.543 million units
• US July FHFA House Price Index monthly change at 0.8%, expected 0.5%, previous 0.4%
• US August seasonally adjusted new home sales annualized total at 675,000 units, expected 700,000 units, previous 714,000 units
• US August seasonally adjusted new home sales monthly change at -8.7%, expected -2%, previous 4.4%
• US September Economic Advisory Council Consumer Confidence Index at 103.0, expected 105.5, previous 106.1
• US September Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index reported as 5, expected -6, previous -7
US Treasury market conditions
• The 2-year US Treasury yield remained roughly unchanged at around 5.12%.
• The 10-year US Treasury yield remained roughly unchanged at around 4.53%.
10年期美債收益率在數十年以來的高位震盪
週二（9/26）10年期美債收益率多在4.5%上方波動，盤中最高來到4.55％附近，為2007年10月以來的新高。對利率敏感的2年期美債收益率則在5.12%附近，變化不大。最新公布的經據顯示，美國消費者信心下降，新屋銷售下滑，引發市場對美國經濟狀況的擔憂。明尼阿波利斯聯準銀行行長卡什卡里 (Neel Kashkari) 表示，聯準會有 60% 的機率能將通膨降至 2% 目標，但若通膨頑固，則可能需要再升息不只一次。
官員談話
• 明尼阿波利斯聯準銀行行長卡什卡里 (Neel Kashkari) 表示，聯準會有 60% 的機率能將通膨降至 2% 目標，而不會對經濟造成嚴重傷害，另一種他認為機率在 40% 的可能是，通膨根深蒂固，因此需要不只一次升息才能予以控制。
經濟數據
• 美國 8 月營建許可月率修正值為 6.8%，前值 6.9%
• 美國 8 月營建許可年化總數修正值為 154.1 萬戶，前值 154.3 萬戶
• 美國 7 月 FHFA 房價指數月率為 0.8%，預期 0.5%，前值 0.4%
• 美國 8 月季調後新屋銷售年化總數為 67.5 萬戶，預期 70 萬戶，前值 71.4 萬戶
• 美國 8 月季調後新屋銷售年化月率為 – 8.7%，預期 – 2%，前值 4.4%
• 美國 9 月經濟評議會消費者信心指數為 103.0，預期 105.5，前值 106.1
• 美國 9 月里奇蒙 Fed 製造業指數報為 5，預期 – 6，前值 – 7
美債市場狀況
• 2年期美債利率較前日大致不變在約5.12%
• 10年期美債利率較前日大致不變在約4.53%