Yield curve steepened on Fed rate outlook
While the Fed kept the interest rates unchanged last week, it released a series of better economic data with its hawkish stance. The market was assessing that the Fed may keep interest rates at higher levels for longer than initially anticipated. On Monday (9/25), Chicago Fed President Goolsbee stated that the Fed will focus on how long interest rates should remain at high levels. U.S. Treasury yields mostly rose, with the yields on longer-term bonds increasing significantly and the 10-year Treasury yield touching 4.5% area again. The spread between the 2-year and 10-year yields was around -59 bps, the steepest in nearly four months.
Officials’ comments
• Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee pointed out that inflation remaining above the 2% target is a significant risk, as it could also increase the risk of excessive tightening leading to an economic slowdown. The debate about the Fed’s rate policy is shifting from how much to raise interest rates to how long to maintain rates at high levels.
Economic data
• The U.S. National Activity Index from the Chicago Fed for August was -0.16, compared to the previous value of 0.07.
US Treasury market conditions
• The 2-year US Treasury yield increased by 2bps to around 5.12%.
• The 10-year US Treasury yield increased by 10bps to around 4.53%.
The market will closely watch speeches from Fed officials and the release of the PCE inflation index on Friday. Fed Chair Powell is scheduled to speak on Thursday, and New York Fed President John Williams is scheduled to speak on Friday. According to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, the probability for further rate hikes in November is currently 19% (vs 35% a week ago), and for December, it stands around 39% (vs 42% a week ago).
聯準會的利率前景使殖利率曲線趨陡
上週聯準會維持基準利率不變，但發布了一系列較佳的經濟數據並展現其鷹派立場，市場持續消化聯準會保持利率在高位的時間可能將更長於原先預期。週一（9/25） 芝加哥聯準銀行行長古爾斯比 (Austan Goolsbee) 表示，未來聯準會將關注利率應維持在高位多久。美國公債收益率大多上升，以長天期公債收益率的彈幅較為顯著，10年期公債再度升至4.5%附近，2年期與10年期的利差則來到約-59bps，為近四個月以來的最陡。
官員談話
• 芝加哥聯準銀行行長古爾斯比 (Austan Goolsbee) 指出，通膨持續高於 2% 目標是一個較大的風險，因過度緊縮導致經濟放緩的風險亦將加大。關於聯準會利率政策的爭論，將不再是將升息多少，而是轉變為需要將利率維持在高位多久。
經濟數據
• 美國 8 月 芝加哥聯準銀行全國活動指數為 -0.16，前值 0.07
美債市場狀況
• 2年期美債利率較前日上漲約2bps至約5.12%
• 10年期美債利率較前日上漲約10bps至約4.53%
市場密切關注本週聯準會官員的發言和週五即將公布的PCE通膨指數。聯準會主席鮑爾（Jerome Powell）定於週四發表演說，紐約聯準銀行行長威廉斯 （John Williams）則預定於週五發表演說。根據芝加哥商品交易所（CME Group）的FedWatch Tool，預期聯準會在11月份會議再升息的機率約19%（一週之前約35％），12月份會議再升息的機率約39%（一週之前約42％）。