FOMC is prepared to raise interest rates again
On Wednesday (9/20), as expected by the market, the Fed kept interest rates unchanged. However, the dot chart indicates that there will be another rate hike by the end of this year. Among the 19 voting members of the FOMC, 12 expect another rate hike by the end of this year, while 7 support keeping rates unchanged. Furthermore, interest rates are expected to remain higher for a longer period, with the Fed raising its forecast for the federal funds rate at the end of 2024 from 4.6% in June to 5.1%. Chairman Powell stated that the extent of rate cuts has been reduced primarily due to the FOMC’s optimistic outlook on economic growth, rather than concerns about stubborn inflation. Following the interest rate decision, the 2-year Treasury yield rose to 5.18%, and the 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.41%.
Economic outlook
• Economic Growth: 2.1% for this year (vs 1.0% in June), 1.5% for next year (vs 1.1% in June), with a long-term expectation of 1.8%.
• Unemployment Rate: 3.8% for this year (vs 4.1% in June), 4.1% for next year (vs 4.5% in June), with a long-term expectation of 4.0%.
• Core Inflation Rate: 3.7% for this year (vs 3.9% in June), 2.6% for next year (vs 2.6% in June).
US Treasury market conditions
• The 2-year US Treasury yield increased by 8bps to around 5.18%.
• The 10-year US Treasury yield rose by 5bps to around 4.41%.
聯準會準備在情況適宜時再度升息
週三（9/20）聯儲會如市場預期維持利率不變，但利率點陣圖顯示今年底前將再加息一次，聯邦公開市場委員會 （FOMC） 中的 19 位票委，有 12 位預計今年底前再升息 1 碼，而 7 位則支持維持利率不變。此外，利率將在更長時間保持高位，聯準會將2024 年底的聯邦基金利率由6月時的預測 4.6%上調至 5.1%。主席鮑爾表示，降息預期幅度減縮，主因聯準會官員對經濟成長的樂觀態度，不是來自對頑固通膨的擔憂。本次利率決議會後，2年期美債殖利率升至5.18%，10年期美債殖利率升至4.41%。
經濟展望
• 經濟成長：今年為2.1% （6月時預測為1.0%），明年為1.5% （6月時預測為1.1%），長期預期則為1.8%。
• 失業率：今年為3.8% （6月時預測為4.1%），明年為4.1% （6月時預測為4.5%），長期預期則為4.0%。
• 核心通膨率：今年為3.7% （6月時預測為3.9%），明年為2.6% （6月時預測為2.6%）。
美債市場狀況
• 2年期美債利率較前日上升約8bps至約5.18%
• 10年期美債利率較前日上升約5bps至約4.41%