Data supported the hawkish scenario of the Fed
On Thursday (9/14), the August US Producer Price Index (PPI) saw its highest monthly increase over a year, while retail sales exceeded expectations, indicating strong consumer spending even amid rising oil prices. Additionally, initial jobless claims remained relatively low. Overall, the data supported the hawkish stance of the Fed. The market expected that it will be less likely to see an end to tightening monetary policy cycle this month. Following the data release, yields on 2-year and 10-year US Treasury bonds increased.
Economic data
• Initial jobless claims in the US for the previous week stood at 220,000, with an estimated 225,000 and a previous value of 217,000.
• Continuing jobless claims in the US for the previous week were at 1,688,000, with an estimated 1,695,000 and a previous value of 1,684,000.
• The US PPI increased 1.6% for August on yearly basis, with an expectation of 1.2% and a previous value of 0.8%.
• The US PPI increased 0.7% for August on monthly basis, with an expectation of 0.4% and a previous value of 0.4%.
• The US core PPI increased 2.2% for August on yearly basis, in line with expectations, and with a previous value of 2.4%.
• The US core PPI increased 0.2% for August on monthly basis, in line with expectations, and with a previous value of 0.4%.
• US retail sales for August showed a monthly growth rate of 0.6%, beating expectations of 0.2%, and with a previous value of 0.5%.
US Treasury market conditions
• The 2-year US Treasury yield increased by 4bps to around 5.01%.
• The 10-year US Treasury yield increased by 4bps to near 4.29%.
經濟數據支持聯準會的鷹派觀點
週四（9/14）8月美國生產者物價指數月增長為一年多以來最高，而零售銷售成長超出預期，顯示近期在油價走高情況下，消費者支出強勁。此外，初領失業金人數保持在相對低位。整體而言，數據支持聯準會的鷹派觀點，市場預期不太可能在本月結束緊縮貨幣政策週期。數據公布後，2年期、10年期國債利率走高。
經濟數據
• 美國上周初領失業金人數為22 萬人，預估 22.5 萬人，前值 21.7 萬人
• 美國上周續領失業金人數為 168.8 萬人，預估 169.5 萬人，前值 168.4 萬人
• 美國 8 月 PPI 年增率為 1.6%，預期 1.2%，前值 0.8%
• 美國 8 月 PPI 月增率為 0.7%，預期 0.4%，前值 0.4%
• 美國 8 月核心 PPI 年增率為 2.2%，預期 2.2%，前值 2.4%
• 美國 8 月核心 PPI 月增率為 0.2%，預期 0.2%，前值 0.4%
• 美國 8 月零售銷售月增率為 0.6%，預期 0.2%，前值 0.5%
美債市場狀況
• 2年期美債利率較前日上升約4bps至約5.01%
• 10年期美債利率較前日上升約4bps至約4.29%