Inflation picked up but the pace eased
On Wednesday (9/13), the announced inflation rate for August was 0.6% month-on-month, in line with market expectations, but it was the highest in the past 14 months. The core inflation was 0.3% on monthly basis, higher than both expectations and the previous month, but it remained a relatively low pace over the past year. Overall, inflation slightly increased due to the rise in oil prices recently, but the magnitude is manageable. The market expects the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged at a high level next week. After the data release, yields on 2-year and 10-year Treasury bonds decreased.
Economic data
- US August CPI year-on-year: 3.7%, expected 3.6%, previous 3.2%
- US August CPI month-on-month: 0.6%, expected 0.6%, previous 0.2%
- US August Core CPI year-on-year: 4.3%, expected 4.3%, previous 4.7%
- US August Core CPI month-on-month: 0.3%, expected 0.2%, previous 0.2%
US Treasury market conditions - The 2-year US Treasury yield decreased by 5bps to around 4.97%.
- The 10-year US Treasury yield declined by 3bps to 4.25%.
The latest CPI data for August indicates that inflation remains resilient, supporting the view that the Fed will keep interest rates at a restrictive level for a longer period, possibly even raising them again before the year-end. According to CME’s FedWatch tool, the market currently predicts a 97% chance for the Fed pausing rate hikes in September, with the probability for further rate hikes of 49% in November and 43% in December.
通膨略有升溫，但幅度可控
週三（9/13）公布8 月的CPI通膨月增率為 0.6%，符合市場預期，但為過去14個月以來新高，而核心通膨月增率則在 0.3%，高於預期與前期，但仍為近一年內的相對低位增速。顯示受油價攀升影響，近期通膨略有升溫，但整體幅度可控，市場預期聯準會下週將維持利率在高位不變。數據公布後，2年期、10年期國債利率走低。
經濟數據 - 美國 8 月 CPI 年增率為 3.7%，預期 3.6%，前值 3.2%
- 美國 8 月 CPI 月增率為 0.6%，預期 0.6%，前值 0.2%
- 美國 8 月核心 CPI 年增率為 4.3%，預期 4.3%，前值 4.7%
- 美國 8 月核心 CPI 月增率為 0.3%，預期 0.2%，前值 0.2%
美債市場狀況 - 2年期美債利率較前日下跌約5bps至約4.97%
- 10年期美債利率較前日下跌約3bps至約4.25%
8月最新CPI數據顯示通膨依然頑強，支持聯準會將利率保持在限制性水位更長時間的觀點，甚至年底之前再次升息。根據 芝商所（CME）的 FedWatch 工具，目前市場預測聯準會 9 月暫停升息的可能性為 97%，11 月再升息的機率約49%，12 月再升息的機率約43%。