US yields changed slightly before CPI data
On Tuesday (9/12), U.S. yields moved in narrow range, with the 10-year Treasury yield declining by 1bp, while the more interest-rate-sensitive 2-year Treasury yield increased by 3bps, to 5% area again. Market participants anticipate that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data set to be released in the United States on Wednesday will provide the latest clues regarding the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy measures. Economists estimate that the inflation rate for August is expected to accelerate to 0.6% on a monthly basis, while the core inflation rate is expected to remain stable at 0.2%.
Economic data
- The U.S. NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for August reported a reading of 91.3, lower than the expected 91.6 and down from the previous value of 91.9. 23% of small business owners indicated that inflation was their primary concern, and the number of small businesses expecting an improved business environment in the next six months decreased. Overall, inflation and labor shortages continue to be the greatest challenges to small and medium-sized enterprises.
US Treasury market conditions - The 2-year US Treasury yield increased by 3bps to around 5.02%.
- The 10-year US Treasury yield declined by 1bp to 4.28%.
重要通膨數據公布前，美債收益率小幅波動
週二（9/12）美國公債利率變化不大，10年期國債利率下跌1bp，對貨幣政策敏感的2年期國債利率則是上彈3bps，再度升至5%附近。市場認為，美國周三將公布的CPI通膨數據將為聯準會的貨幣政策措施提供最新線索。據經濟學家估算，8 月份的通膨月增率將加速至 0.6%，而核心通膨月增率將穩定在 0.2%。
經濟數據 - 美國 8 月 NFIB 中小企業信心指數為91.3，低於預期的 91.6，也低於前值的 91.9。有23%小企業表示通膨是他們最關心的問題，而預期未來六個月經營環境將變得更好的小企業數下降。整體而言，通膨和勞工短缺仍然是目前中小企業經營的最大挑戰。
美債市場狀況 - 2年期美債利率較前日上彈約3bps至約5.02%
- 10年期美債利率較前日下跌約1bp至約4.28%