BoJ signaled possible policy change
On Monday (9/11), the 10-year US Treasury yield rose to near 4.3%, a relatively high level in 15 years. Meanwhile, the 10-year JGB yield jumped to around 0.7%, marking its highest level in almost a decade, as the Bank of Japan may consider ending its negative interest rate policy by the end of this year.
Officials remarks
- According to an interview published in the Yomiuri newspaper last Saturday, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda stated that the central bank might consider ending its negative interest rate policy when inflation reaches 2% target. He added that there could be enough data to make such a decision by the end of this year.
- US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen recently expressed confidence that inflation can be controlled without causing significant harm to growth or the labor market, reducing the urgency for monetary policy easing.
US Treasury market conditions - The 2-year US Treasury yield remained roughly unchanged at around 4.99%.
- The 10-year US Treasury yield rose by about 2bps to 4.29%.
The market is closely watching the Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data scheduled to be released this week. The markets expect the inflation may moderate, supporting the Federal Reserve’s decision to keep interest rates unchanged this month. However, concerns about future inflation have led to a probability of more than 40% for further rate hikes in November. The Federal Reserve is set to hold its Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting next week (9/19).
日本央行預示將結束負利率政策
週一（9/11）美國10年期國債收益率再度升至接近4.3％，為近15年以來的相對高位。於此同時，日本國債收益率上升至約0.7%，則是近10年來的最高水平，因日本央行最快可能於今年底之前結束負利率政策。
官員談話 - 據日本《讀賣新聞》(Yomiuri)上周六發表的訪談，日本央行行長植田和男（Kazuo Ueda）表示，當通膨目標達到2%目標時，將考慮結束負利率。他補充說，今年年底之前可能會有足夠的數據來做出這樣的決定。
- 美國財政部長葉倫（Janet Yellen）近日表示，有信心美國將能夠在不對經濟增長或勞動市場造成重大打擊的情況下控制通脹，限制了對寬鬆貨幣政策的迫切需求。
美債市場狀況 - 2年期美債利率大致不變約4.99%
- 10年期美債利率較前日上彈約2bps至約4.29%
市場關注本週即將公布的CPI通膨數據，市場預期通脹可能趨緩，支持聯準會於本月保持利率不變，但因對未來通膨情勢的擔憂，使得預期11月升息一碼的機率大於四成。聯準會將於下週（9/19）召開利率決議會議（FOMC）。