Will the Fed raise interest rates again before year end?
On Friday (9/8), the US 10-year Treasury yield retreated to an earlier low near 4.22% but ended higher, after touching 4.3% on Thursday. The market continues to assess the monetary policy outlook and digest recent comments from Fed officials.
Statements by official
• Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan suggested that skipping a rate hike at the upcoming policy meeting might be appropriate, while hinting that it may require further rate hikes to bring inflation back to 2%.
US Treasury market conditions
• The 2-year US Treasury yield increased by about 4bps to 4.99%.
• The 10-year US Treasury yield rose by around 2bps to 4.27%.
The markets expect the Fed to keep the federal funds rate unchanged at the policy meeting this month, but the likelihood for further rate hikes before the end of the year has recently increased. According to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, the probability for further rate hikes in November is currently 47% (up from about 35% a week ago), and for December, it stands around 45% (up from about 32% a week ago).
年底之前,聯準會還會再升息嗎?
週五(9/8)美國10年期國債收益率最低回落至4.22%附近,然後小幅回升,此前在週四觸及4.3%。市場繼續評估貨幣政策前景,並消化近日幾位官員們的談話。
官員談話
• 達拉斯聯儲行長蘿根(Lorie Logan)指出,在即將召開的利率決議會議上跳過升息可能是合適的,同時也暗示利率可能必須進一步上升才能使通膨率回到 2%。
美債市場狀況
• 2年期美債利率較前日上彈約4bps至約4.99%
• 10年期美債利率較前日上彈約2bps至約4.27%
預期聯準會將在本月的利率決議會議將保持聯邦基金利率不變,但今年底之前再升息的機率於近期上升。依據芝商所(CME Group)的 FedWatch Tool,11月再升息的機率約47%(一週之前約35%),12月再升息的機率約45%(一週之前約32%)。