US Treasury yields moved higher as service data was stronger unexpectedly
Better-than-expected service sector data bolstered speculation that the Fed will maintain higher interest rates for a longer period, leading to a rebound in US bond yields from intra-day lows. Additionally, Boston Federal Reserve President Susan Collins stated on Wednesday that the Fed should carefully evaluate future rate hikes.
Economic data
• In August, the ISM Services PMI unexpectedly rose to 54.5, surpassing expectations of 52.5 and the previous reading of 52.7, reaching its highest level in nearly six months. The price gauge also climbed to a four-month high, reflecting ongoing cost pressures in the service sector.
Statements by official
• Boston Federal Reserve President Susan Collins echoed the views expressed by another official, Christopher Waller, stating that the Fed should carefully assess the need for further rate hikes in the future.
US Treasury market conditions
• The 2-year US Treasury yield increased by about 7bps to 5.03%, marking a one-week high.
• The 10-year US Treasury yield rose by around 3bps to 4.30%, about a total increase of 21bps over the past three trading days.
The FedWatch Tool by CME Group indicates that traders estimate a 93% likelihood of interest rates remaining unchanged this month, a 46.6% probability of a rate hike in November, and a 44.8% probability of a rate hike in December.
服務業數據優於預期，美債殖利率走高
服務業數據意外上升，強化對聯準會在更長時間內維持較高利率的臆測，使昨日美債殖利率自日內低點反彈。此外，波士頓聯儲行長柯林斯（Susan Collins）於週三表示，聯準會應謹慎地評估未來是否升息。
經濟數據
• 8月份ISM服務業PMI上升至54.5，優於預期的52.5，與前期的52.7，為近六個月以來最高，其中物價指數進一步升至 四個月高點，反映服務業成本依舊高漲。
官員談話
• 波士頓聯儲行長柯林斯（Susan Collins）週三表示，聯準會應謹慎地評估未來是否需要再次提高利率，與昨日另一官員華倫（Christopher Waller）談話的觀點一致。
美債市場狀況
• 2年期美債利率較前日上漲約7bps至5.03%，創一周新高
• 10年期美債利率較前日上漲約3bps至4.30%，過去3個交易日累積上彈21bps
芝商所（CME Group）的FedWatch Tool顯示，交易員預估本月維持利率不變的可能性為 93%， 11 月升息的機率為 46.6%， 12 月升息的機率為 44.8%。