Economic data and remarks by official led to higher US Treasury yields
US Treasury yields rose yesterday, mainly due to better-than-expected economic data and comments from Federal Reserve official. Larger size corporate bond issuances also contributed to higher US Treasury yields. Investors reassess the economic outlook for the United States, driving up US Treasury yields.
Economic data
• In July, factory orders decreased by 2.1% month-on-month, although this was a decline from the previous month’s growth of 2.3%, it exceeded expectations of a 2.5% decline monthly, indicating stabilization in the manufacturing sector.
Statements by officials
• Federal Reserve official Christopher Waller stated that the economic data recently showed a slowdown in inflation, allowing the Federal Reserve to cautiously evaluate the need for further interest rate hikes. However, he also cautioned market participants from assuming that the Federal Reserve has concluded its rate-hike cycle.
US Treasury market conditions
• Larger scale investment-grade corporate bonds were issued post-Labor Day, exerting pressure on US government bonds.
• The 2-year US Treasury yield increased by about 8 bps to 4.96%, while the 10-year US Treasury yield rose by around 8 bps to 4.26%.
In summary, recent economic data indicating a slowdown in inflation and the potential for the US economy to avoid a recession, coupled with officials’ views that the Federal Reserve has more room for cautious assessment regarding further interest rate increases, along with a higher volume of investment-grade corporate bond issuances, contributed to the rise in US Treasury yields after the Labor Day holiday.
經濟數據與官員談話使得美債殖利率走高
昨天的美國公債利率上彈，主要由於優於預期的經濟數據以及聯邦儲備委員會官員的談話，且受到企業債券發行的壓力影響，投資者重新評估了美國經濟前景，推高公債利率。
經濟數據
• 7月份工廠訂單月減2.1%，雖然低於前期為成長2.3%，但優於預期的月減2.5%，顯示製造業出現穩定跡象。
官員談話
• 聯準會官員Christopher Waller表示，最新的經濟數據顯示通膨放緩，使聯準會得以謹慎地評估是否需要再次提高利率。然而，他也警告市場參與者不應假設聯準會已經結束了加息週期。
美債市場狀況
• 投資等級的公司債在勞動節過後發行債券，增加對美國國債的壓力。
• 2年期美債利率較前日上漲約8個基點至4.96%，10年期美債利率較前日上漲約8個基點至4.26%。
整體而言，近期經濟數據顯示通膨放緩，美國景氣有機會避免衰退，官員認為聯準會有更多空間謹慎評估是否繼續升息，加上有較大量的投資等級公司債發行，推升美債殖利率於勞動節假期過後走升。