Yield curve steepens amid mixed economic signals
On Friday (9/1), the economic data released in the United States showed a mixed performance, with the steepening of the yield curve.
Economic data:
- The August employment report revealed the addition of 187,000 new job positions, exceeding expectations. However, the unemployment rate increased to 3.8%.
- Labor force participation rate rose, and wage growth moderated, indicating an increase in labor supply and more people joining workforce.
- The August ISM Manufacturing PMI improved slightly from July’s 46.4 to 47.6, signifying a pickup in manufacturing activity.
US Treasury market conditions: - The 2-year Treasury yields increased by approximately 1bp to 4.87% compared to the previous day, while the 10-year Treasury yields rose by around 9 bps to 4.18%.
- The yield spread between the 2-year and 10-year treasury yields was -67 bps, a decrease from the previous day’s -76 bps, indicating a less inversion of the yield curve.
According to CME’s FedWatch Tool, after the latest employment report was released, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged in September has risen to 94%. Overall, the current US economy is facing complex challenges, and the market’s expectation for the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged in September has increased.
經濟數據好壞參半,殖利率曲線趨陡
週五(9/1)美國公布的經濟好壞參半,長天期美債殖利率多走升,並伴隨著整條殖利率曲線趨陡的變化。
經濟數據
- 8月份就業報告顯示新增18.7萬個工作崗位,超出預期,但失業率上升至3.8%。
- 勞參率上升,薪資增長略有減緩,顯示就業供給增加,且勞動力參與率上升。
- 8月ISM製造業PMI從7月的46.4略微改善至47.6,表明製造業活動有所回升。
美債市場狀況 - 2年期美債利率較前日上漲約1個基點至4.87%,10年期美債利率較前日上漲約9個基點至4.18%。
- 2年期與10年期利差約-67個基點,與前一日的-76個基點相較,長期美債殖利率上升,曲線倒掛情況緩和。
根據CME的FedWatch Tool顯示,在最新就業報告公布之後,市場預期聯準會於9月維持利率不變的的可能性上升至94%。整體而言,當前美國經濟面臨著複雜的挑戰,市場對聯準會於9月份的貨幣政策將維持利率不變的期待亦升高.